Donald Trump won’t be found guilty of an impeachable offense, but a return to a political kingdom where he sits at the top will be beyond his reach. We have Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell to thank for that.
McConnell, though no longer boss of the Senate, is still wise and cagey. And far more often than not, he is a political step ahead of everyone else in Washington. From the moment the Capitol was invaded by rioters on Jan. 6, he understood the country’s political playing field had changed dramatically, especially for Republicans and Trump.
As close as McConnell had been to Trump, he was itching to split. He blames the former president for losing Georgia’s two Senate seats, thus giving Democrats control of the U.S. Senate. The problem was a Trump speech that caused GOP turnout to crater. Trump’s lack of political reach, by the way, led to the Republican loss of the House in 2018.
Nor were Trump and McConnell warm friends. Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, McConnell’s wife, quit the Cabinet the day after the clamor in the Capitol erupted. McConnell told reporters he last talked to Trump on Dec. 15.
The lack of a strong tie was reflected in McConnell’s coolness toward Trump’s claim his reelection defeat was caused by voting fraud. The president was angered when McConnell congratulated Joe Biden for prevailing in the Electoral College.
The first moves by McConnell (on riot day) were to pull away abruptly from Trump. Having worked closely with the White House for four years, he’d been tarred as Trump’s enabler in chief. McConnell was rarely critical except to suggest Trump was difficult to work with.
But on Jan. 12, a leak to the New York Times disclosed McConnell had told associates he believes Trump had committed impeachable offenses in stirring the mob that forced its way into the Capitol. He was said to be pleased Democrats were on the verge of impeaching Trump.
The McConnell blast was striking because his office declined to rebut the story. On top of that, he let it be known a full-blown impeachment trial would improve the chance of purging Trump from the GOP.
And as if to heighten the significance of his breach with Trump, McConnell sent a letter to Senate colleagues saying he wouldn’t be upset by a guilty verdict. The New York Times appeared to be excited that “the dam could be breaking against Mr. Trump.” It isn’t, at least not yet.
The day before Biden’s inauguration, the Republican leader unloaded on Trump on the Senate floor. He said the violence at the Capitol had been “provoked by the president” in his speech outside the White House on Jan. 19. “The mob was fed lies.”
As the impeachment clash unfolded, the sides took on a shape that Democrats and the media, on one hand, and Republicans on the other hadn’t expected. Democrats (the media had no vote) were hoping McConnell had become fully anti-Trump and would bring enough Republican senators along to convict Trump of the lone charge, “incitement of insurrection.”
He was supposed to be guilty of this when he urged the crowd assembled on the south side of the White House to walk “peacefully” to the Capitol on Jan. 6. When I read the transcript of what Trump said, I found no examples of incitement or insurrection.
That wasn’t what McConnell had in mind anyway. Nor was it to punish Trump. The senator’s interest was in having Trump’s wrongdoing dragged out on television for the benefit of Trump voters who might lose their attachment to him.
The trial begins on Feb. 9, but Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky forced an early one by invoking a point of order. Its subject was whether an impeachment trial of a former president (no longer in office) is constitutional. The vote was 45 no, 55 yes. Five Republicans voted yes with 50 Democrats. Since a two-thirds majority is required to convict, the vote indicated Trump is headed for acquittal. It would take 17 or more Republicans, along with 50 Democrats, to convict Trump.
Now, remember the cleverness of McConnell. He isn’t bent on a conviction that could lead to a lifetime ban on Trump’s running for president again, no conviction, no ban. McConnell and his allies want Trump sidelined; his voters lured to join the Republicans — a task not easy but possible.
So the political world would look like this: Republicans free and vigorous, Trump free and ailing.
Fred Barnes is a Washington Examiner senior columnist.
