Two new polls show Republican Ed Gillespie closing in on Democratic incumbent Mark Warner in the Virginia Senate race. Christopher Newport University, which had Warner up 12 points earlier in the month in its survey, now has Warner’s lead down to 7.
More provocatively, The Daily Caller reports on a new poll from Vox Populi that has Gillespie down only 4 points. Vox Populi is a relatively new as well as Republican-oriented polling firm, and one might be inclined to discount this result. On the other hand, a quick glance at the Vox Populi poll’s other numbers doesn’t raise warning flags: The sample is 34 percent Democratic, 31 percent Republican, 35 percent independent, which seems about right; and Obama’s approval/disapproval is 44/56, which is consistent with other polling.
Maybe these surveys simply mean that Gillespie will lose by less of a margin than many expected, by mid-single digits. On the other hand, if Warner’s ballot test is really, say, half-way between the two polls at around 47-48, then Gillespie really has a chance to keep on gaining and pull off one heck of an upset on November 4.
