With fewer than 24 hours until Election Day polls open, the race for control of the United States Senate is as tight as can be. Republicans face substantial structural challenges. They are defending more seats this cycle, and the nomination of Donald Trump has turned a winnable presidential election into a probable defeat at the hands of Hillary Clinton. That is creating down-ballot drag for many Republican candidates, particularly in places with large minority populations. Yet Democratic hopes of a rout have been more or less dashed as the GOP position has strengthened noticeably in the last few days.
Let’s run down the details.
For starters, Rob Portman in Ohio is still cruising to an easy victory over Democrat Ted Strickland. This was a race that Democrats once hoped would become competitive, but look for Portman to be declared the winner as soon as polls close. The same goes for Democrat Tammy Duckworth in Illinois. She is primed for an easy victory over Republican incumbent Mark Kirk.
Marco Rubio in Florida looks to be in good shape. He leads Democratic Patrick Murphy by three points in the latest Real Clear Politics average of the polls. Just as importantly, Murphy has not led in any poll included in the RCP average since June.
In Wisconsin, Democrat Russ Feingold has a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Ron Johnson. The race has tightened considerably in the last few days, but Johnson has led in only one poll in the last year. He could certainly pull it out, but Trump will probably be a drag on his fortunes.
If we assume that these races go the way the polls have been indicating, that leaves 47 Republican seats, 47 Democratic seats, and 6 seats that are tossups: Nevada, Indiana, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Missouri, and North Carolina.
Nevada features an open seat race to succeed Democrat Harry Reid. The polls have been nip and tuck over the last month, and Republican Joe Heck currently has a narrow lead over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto. But that could be illusory. Nevada is a notoriously difficult state to poll, and the early voting data shows a surge among Latino voters. It is easy to overinterpret early voting results, but because such a large portion of Nevada’s electorate votes before Election Day, this is not a good sign for Heck. If there is one state where the polls get it wrong, it will probably be Nevada.
The GOP’s fortunes in Indiana and Pennsylvania have been moving in opposite directions. Indiana features an open Senate contest, and Democrat Evan Bayh is vying to reclaim the seat he gave up in 2010. For most of the cycle, he has had a comfortable lead, but recent polls have shown a swing to Republican Todd Young. State law makes it expensive to poll Indiana, so there is a relative dearth of quality polls, but the edge at this point probably goes narrowly to Young. For all intents and purposes, Bayh is the incumbent, so the late-breaking voters will probably turn against him (though not necessarily). Moreover, Trump should win Indiana by a comfortable margin, so Young does not face a down-ballot drag.
Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania Republican Pat Toomey’s position in the recent polls has eroded. His Democratic challenger, Katie McGinty, has taken a narrow lead, and the GOP incumbent remains mired at 43 percent in the latest RCP poll average. Ticket splitting could be a factor in the Keystone State. McGinty has been hitting Toomey hard in western Pennsylvania, where ancestral Democrats will probably vote strongly for Trump, but could also be drawn to McGinty’s populist message. Meanwhile, Clinton is stronger in eastern Pennsylvania, but as this is Toomey’s home region, he could hold the line in metropolitan Philadelphia.
In New Hampshire, Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte has retained a modest polling lead through most of the fall against Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan. This is really a race between two incumbents, as Hassan is the sitting Democratic governor. Ayotte has been a dogged campaigner and is no doubt being helped by the tightening of the polls in the presidential battle. Roughly half of the 2012 electorate was composed of whites without college degrees, which is Trump’s strongest demographic group and helps account for why he now has a narrow lead over Hillary Clinton in the Granite State.
Trump also has a narrow lead in the North Carolina polls, and the Tar Heel state looks once again to be a tight contest. Interestingly, Republican incumbent Richard Burr had been running a few points ahead of Trump in polls—until recently. Now, Trump is running slightly ahead of Burr. This race will no doubt be close, whichever way it goes.
In Missouri, Republican incumbent Roy Blunt has held a narrow lead over Democrat Jason Kander for the duration of the campaign. Still, he is one of the weaker incumbents this cycle, as Trump is running well ahead of Clinton in the Show Me State. Blunt is one of those rare Republicans who is counting on Trump to drag him across the finish line.
Taking all of this together, it is hard to give either party the edge. The Republicans have a polling lead in 5 of these 6 toss-ups, which would give them 52 seats in the upper chamber. But the Democrats have more potential pickup opportunities—they are playing offense in five states and defense in only one. Moreover, there is a sizeable chunk of undecided voters in all six of these states. If they move in the same direction, then the Democrats could easily claim a majority.
Both sides will probably hold at least 48 seats in the next Senate, but is about the most we can say. Clinton has a clear edge in the battle for the White House, and the GOP is an easy favorite to hold the House, but the Senate is a true toss-up.
