Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) is only 3 points ahead of Democratic challenger Mike Franken in his bid for an eighth term in what could be the closest reelection contest of his career.
A new poll from the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa puts Grassley, 89, with 46% of the vote and Franken at 43% among likely voters. The poll surveyed 804 Iowans over the age of 18, 620 of whom are likely voters in the Nov. 8 midterm election. It was conducted Oct. 9 through 12 and has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points for all Iowans and 3.9 for the likely voters.
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“It says to me that Franken is running a competent campaign and has a shot to defeat the seemingly invincible Chuck Grassley — previously perceived to be invincible,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co, which conducted the poll, told the Des Moines Register.
Grassley’s closest Senate race was his first in 1980, in which he beat the Democratic incumbent. Since then, the closest a challenger has come to unseating him was in 2016, when he still won by 24% of the vote. On average, Grassley is polling over 7 points ahead of Franken, according to polling aggregate FiveThirtyEight.
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Grassley’s approval rating is the lowest it’s ever been throughout his career, with two-thirds of voters concerned about his age. Meanwhile, a third of Iowans don’t know who Franken is.
Grassley’s seat is still considered safe Republican, and Democratic groups have said they don’t plan to spend on behalf of Franken. Republicans need a net gain of one seat to win the majority in the upper chamber.
