Missouri’s Political Phenom

Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell and Missouri senator Roy Blunt have made it known they’re eager for him to run. And though Hawley is a conservative, leaders of the party’s moderate wing—notably former senator John Danforth and GOP donor Sam Fox—have publicly called on him to enter the Senate race.

There’s little doubt among Republican leaders that Hawley would have the best chance of ousting Democrat Claire McCaskill next year. He’s young (37) and brainy (Stanford, Yale), has deep Missouri roots, and is married with two young kids. He and his wife Erin are lawyers who met when they clerked for Chief Justice John Roberts.

What catapulted Hawley to prominence was the magnitude of his victory in the AG race last year. Missouri was a strong Trump state, and down-ticket candidates don’t usually lead the field. But Hawley outpolled Trump, 61 percent to 56.4 percent.

This spring, a draft-Josh movement broke out, led by Danforth and Fox. In an open letter, they praised Hawley for an “impressive start” as attorney general and for his “commitment to excellent service in that important office.” Nonetheless, they urged him to challenge McCaskill.

Last week, the movement got a big boost when Rep. Ann Wagner decided not to run for the Senate. She had been regarded as likely to win the GOP primary and be a competitive candidate against McCaskill.

Hawley could have squelched the draft campaign by declaring he would not jump into the Senate race. But he merely said he was focused on his work as AG. Now he will have to decide. Given the pressure and with Wagner out, Hawley is considered likely to run.

Assuming he does, he’ll have distinct advantages. For one thing, Missouri is still a good state for Trump. With Hawley on board, “you start with a burst of enthusiasm,” says Steven Law, the president of American Crossroads, which supports Republican candidates. “The race becomes much more winnable.”

Defeating McCaskill would help Republicans retain control of the Senate. They currently have a 52-48 edge. That leaves little margin for error, especially in a midterm election that normally favors the party that doesn’t hold the White House.

This is important to McConnell not merely because he would remain as majority leader. It would allow Republicans to continue approving conservatives to the federal courts, a goal he and Trump agree on.

With the entire Republican infrastructure behind Hawley, the primary field may be cleared for him. “The highest priority we have is to pick up the Senate seat,” says state GOP chairman Todd Graves. “Josh is a formidable candidate and a rising star in Missouri politics.”

Hawley also has national connections. He’s been a major figure in the Federalist Society, the influential organization of conservative lawyers. And he’s well-known among social conservatives. He’s an ally of Republican state AGs across the country. He also worked as an attorney for the Becket Fund, which defends religious liberty.

If he runs for the Senate, he’s sure to be attacked for skipping out early as attorney general. His major initiative has been a lawsuit against three pharmaceutical firms for practices that led to an opioid epidemic in Missouri. He’ll be accused of being a politician who is always looking for higher office to seek—a phenomenon he’s criticized.

McCaskill won reelection easily in 2012 against Republican Todd Akin, who got enmeshed in a controversy over his notion of “legitimate rape.” In effect, she picked her opponent. She and then-Senate majority leader Harry Reid ran TV ads in the GOP primary backing Akin, helping Akin defeat two rivals who might have been more formidable opponents in the general election.

Hawley is a far bigger threat to McCaskill than Wagner would in all likelihood have been. McCaskill is “listing badly,” Law says, referring to her weak poll numbers. Hawley’s are far better. Though he’s quite conservative, “he plays to a broader audience,” Law says.

Should he run and win, Hawley would be another example of the AG’s office serving as a political launching pad. Greg Abbott, the Texas attorney general, led the way when he was elected governor in 2014.

He was followed this year by Scott Pruitt, the former Oklahoma AG whom Trump installed as head of the Environmental Protection Agency. Luther Strange, twice elected as Alabama AG, was appointed to fill the Senate seat of Jeff Sessions, now U.S. attorney general.

In 2018, there are almost sure to be more. Adam Laxalt, attorney general of Nevada, is considering running for governor. And in West Virginia, AG Patrick Morrisey may seek the Senate seat of Democrat Joe Manchin.

Hawley’s background is similar to Arkansas senator Tom Cotton’s. Both grew up in rural towns. Hawley’s father was a banker in Lexington, Missouri, population 4,700. Both are Ivy League-educated. Both are lawyers. Both are married with young children. A Republican operative cited two differences. Cotton was a combat infantry officer in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Republican says, but Hawley “is nicer.”

Fred Barnes is an executive editor at The Weekly Standard.