Don Bolduc is poised to upset two party favorites in the race for the Republican nomination for Senate in New Hampshire, a development boosting Democratic confidence in Sen. Maggie Hassan’s prospects of surviving a red midterm election wave.
Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general, led a crowded field of primary candidates in a fresh poll from Saint Anselm College, garnering 32%. The two contenders preferred by New Hampshire GOP officials, state Senate President Chuck Morse and former Londonderry Town Manager Kevin Smith, trailed with 16% and 4%, respectively. Granite State political observers say a Bolduc victory in the Sept. 13 contest is hardly assured but emphasize his late summer surge is real.
“The other candidates have done nothing to change his trajectory because they don’t take him seriously,” said Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College. “His message matches the GOP electorate. Campaign consultants always weigh opponents by their bank accounts and rarely look at their ability to communicate a resonating message.”
In other words, Bolduc is doing the best job of appealing to a Republican base most animated by former President Donald Trump. On Tuesday, he was campaigning with retired Marine Lt. Col. Stuart Scheller Jr., who gained notoriety for landing in the brig after publicly criticizing the botched U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan while still on active duty. Hassan and her allies can hardly believe their good fortune.
First, the freshman senator dodges a challenge from popular Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who opted for reelection. Now, she could face the GOP candidate whom Republicans believe is the weakest of the bunch. Publicly, the Hassan campaign argues Bolduc, Morse, and Smith are all fatally flawed, saying the trio is ceding the middle ground where general elections are won in New Hampshire to the incumbent, especially with the Supreme Court having overturned Roe v. Wade.
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“Her opponents are taking more extreme positions with every passing day, are stuck in a divisive Republican primary, and are running poorly funded campaigns,” Hassan campaign manager Aaron Jacobs wrote in a memorandum framing the Democrat’s view of the race. “Indeed, Republicans with much less extreme records — like [2014 GOP Senate nominee Scott Brown] — have seen their campaigns brought down in part by their positions on reproductive rights.”
“If Bolduc is the nominee, folks in New Hampshire and D.C. alike may throw in the towel,” added a Republican strategist in the Granite State who is backing one of his primary opponents. The lack of faith in Bolduc at the upper echelons of the GOP exists despite presumptions that a red electoral wave is still on tap for November.
The Bolduc campaign dismisses the naysayers, pointing out that New Hampshire Republicans have been nominating so-called strong general election candidates only to see them fall. That losing streak extends back to 2008, when GOP Sen. John E. Sununu was ousted by now-Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D); 2014, when Shaheen won reelection over Brown, a former Massachusetts senator; and 2016, when GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte was unseated by Hassan.
“Granite Staters are fed up and they see Gen. Bolduc as the only candidate willing to call out career politicians who have led us down this destructive path,” said Republican consultant Rick Wiley, a senior adviser to the Bolduc campaign. “Weakness is gutting this country right now, and it’s time to take it back from the liberals. Voters want a fighter, and that’s what you get with the general.”
Bolduc, 60, completed 10 tours of duty before retiring from the Army and was awarded five Bronze Stars and two Purple Hearts.
Bolduc is mounting his second bid for Senate, having run in 2020 but coming up short in the Republican primary to Trump-backed Bryant “Corky” Messner. Then, as now, his campaign is starved for cash; through June 30, Bolduc raised $470,000 and reported just $65,000 in cash on hand. To compensate, Bolduc is in the midst of a town hall marathon, crisscrossing New Hampshire to meet with voters in dozens and dozens of in-person meetings.
Some Republican insiders in New Hampshire who oppose Bolduc contend the insurgent Republican has reached his ceiling of support and predict the primary is on track to become a competitive two-person race with Morse. A GOP source emphasized it’s not just the so-called party establishment that believes Bolduc cannot beat Hassan. Trump acolytes like Corey Lewandowski, the former president’s New Hampshire consigliere, are also urging Republicans to support an opposing candidate.
“Don is a tinfoil hat-wearing loose cannon conspiracy theorist,” a Republican insider in the state said. “He accused the governor of being a Chinese Communist sympathizer. In 2020, after Trump endorsed Don’s primary opponent, he accused Trump and the [Republican National Committee] of ‘election rigging.’”
Morse and Smith have raked in more money than Bolduc but have struggled somewhat financially. Morse raised $1.3 million through June 30 and reported a war chest of $975,000; Smith collected $727,000 during the same period and entered July with $349,000. But despite Bolduc’s ascendance and general uncertainty surrounding Morse and Smith, the national Republicans remain optimistic about booting Hassan, at least according to the money they are on track to spend in New Hampshire.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, recently forced to reduce or reconfigure advertising buys in some targeting states, is maintaining its $7 million reservation in the Granite State, made expensive because it requires purchasing in the Boston media market.
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The NRSC, pointing to the Aug. 9-11 Saint Anselm College poll showing Hassan’s job approval rating underwater at 44% approval and 51% disapproval, and trending worse, signaled that its commitment to the eventual GOP Senate nominee is firm. “The indisputable facts remain: Maggie Hassan is one of the weakest incumbents in the U.S. Senate with a voting record far out of step with New Hampshire,” committee spokesman T.W. Arrighi said in a statement.
Meanwhile, the Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), has yet to reserve any airtime in New Hampshire, although the group’s affiliated political nonprofit group, One Nation, was in the process of wrapping up a $4.7 million ad campaign in the state.
