In the 2020 election post-mortem, the professional pollsters are again wrestling with the conundrum of what went wrong. In Maine, Sen. Susan Collin may ask the same question after she finishes celebrating her easy win over her Democratic opponent, state Rep. Sara Gideon.
President Trump, in what appears to be a futile effort to overturn the results in some states, once again performed better than the polls suggested. Polling averages showed the ceiling for his nationwide support at 43%, and the result was closer to 48%.
The number disparity worked its way into several states, with Trump winning by larger margins in some states, affecting the outcome of Senate races in Iowa, North Carolina, and South Carolina.
Maine, however, had plenty of people scratching their heads as the numbers rolled in. As the counting went on, the results in the presidential race were predictable. Joe Biden won by a wide margin, getting 53% of the vote to Trump’s 44%. In the Senate race, Collins won comfortably in a race many thought would flip to the Democrats.
Of all the polls for Maine listed by FiveThirtyEight, the last time Collins led in a head-to-head matchup against Gideon was in September 2019. Every poll leading up to Election Day showed Gideon leading. As the votes continued to be counted, Biden and Trump’s gap grew, as did the gap between Collins and Gideon. As the night wore on, the conversation shifted to whether or not Collins would pass the 50% threshold and avoid Maine’s newly implemented ranked-choice voting system.
She did.
More in-depth analysis of the polls will be undertaken to see where they missed as time goes on. But an early look shows the pollsters whiffed in several areas. Emerson College had Gideon ahead in its final poll before Election Day. The Washington Examiner asked Spencer Kimball, the director of Emerson College Polling, where the divergence existed in its poll and the final result.
Kimball said the leaner question was interesting, as leaners broke very heavily for Collins, suggesting a late shift.
But in a conversation with NBC’s Steve Kornacki, he told the Washington Examiner that pollsters once again underestimated the level of support Trump gets from non-college-educated white voters, which helped Collins.
It also appears that Maine voters once again showed their zeal for independence by splitting the ticket. Kornacki pointed to the heavily Democratic city of Portland. In the presidential race, Biden won by a margin of nearly 66%. In the Senate race, however, Gideon’s margin over Collins was approximately 47%.
The numbers suggest many Maine voters filled out their ballot, choosing Biden for president, but sticking with Collins and keeping her in the Senate. It is not an unusual occurrence. In 2008, when Barack Obama won his landslide election for president, he carried 57% of Maine’s vote. Collins, on the other hand, won 61% of the vote in her reelection bid.
People have warned of the damage pollsters have done to their reputations and whether it might provide a shift in the world of politics, where candidates and officeholders worry less about polls and focus more on policy. Pollsters will point to the results of the 2018 election where they did better, suggesting it’s a matter of tightening up the process to get more in line with the results.
Whatever happens, the pollsters will face a harsher spotlight in future elections. For Collins, she’ll only have to concern herself with polls if she decides to run for reelection in 2026.
