The National Republican Senatorial Committee is putting between $6 and 6.5 million into TV ads in North Carolina, Politico reports. The close race between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and GOP challenger Thom Tillis has come down to an air duel between the campaigns and their allied independent expenditure groups—with Democrats so far having the advantage. Hagan has led in every recent poll, but Republicans in Washington tell Politico they see an opening for Tillis:
Seeing overnight tracking numbers that show the race tightening and Republican Thom Tillis in striking distance, NRSC strategists have authorized their independent-expenditure arm to spend an extra $6 million to $6.5 million — on top of the $3 million or so that was already planned.
The major investment reflects the fact that the Tar Heel State remains a top priority for Republicans. Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan has stubbornly led in the low-single digits despite low approval and favorability ratings. A Libertarian on the ballot threatens to play the role of spoiler.
“Our internals show that North Carolina is starting to break toward Thom Tillis, and we are prioritizing the North Carolina race, ensuring that Tillis has the resources necessary to defeat Kay Hagan,” NRSC strategist Brad Dayspring said in an interview.
The major investment reflects the fact that the Tar Heel State remains a top priority for Republicans. Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan has stubbornly led in the low-single digits despite low approval and favorability ratings. A Libertarian on the ballot threatens to play the role of spoiler.
“Our internals show that North Carolina is starting to break toward Thom Tillis, and we are prioritizing the North Carolina race, ensuring that Tillis has the resources necessary to defeat Kay Hagan,” NRSC strategist Brad Dayspring said in an interview.
Still, the race has been frustrating for Republicans who hope to harness North Carolina voters’ discontent with Obama. From this week’s issue of THE WEEKLY STANDARD:
But disenchantment with Obama isn’t quite translating into support for Tillis. The Marist poll found Hagan leading Tillis 44 percent to 40 percent, while Suffolk found Hagan ahead 47 percent to 45 percent. (Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh polled 7 percent and 4 percent, respectively, though Democrats and Republicans alike say they expect his share to drop enough to make him a nonfactor.) Suffolk found that Tillis is winning just 78 percent of those who disapprove of Obama. Hagan, on the other hand, wins 91 percent of those who approve of the president.
Rob Christensen, the chief political writer at the Raleigh News & Observer, says the problem with Tillis’s strategy is that Obama has been “thoroughly debated” in North Carolina, particularly since the state was one of the most hotly contested in 2012 (Romney won it by just under 100,000 votes). “The Obama issue has lost a little bit of its air,” says Christensen. So while Tillis has struggled to make the race a referendum on Obama, Hagan and the Democrats have been making it a referendum on Speaker Tillis and the Republican-controlled state legislature.
“It’s a reversal of the candidates’ positions,” says Hood. “Tillis feels like the incumbent, Hagan is the challenger.”
Rob Christensen, the chief political writer at the Raleigh News & Observer, says the problem with Tillis’s strategy is that Obama has been “thoroughly debated” in North Carolina, particularly since the state was one of the most hotly contested in 2012 (Romney won it by just under 100,000 votes). “The Obama issue has lost a little bit of its air,” says Christensen. So while Tillis has struggled to make the race a referendum on Obama, Hagan and the Democrats have been making it a referendum on Speaker Tillis and the Republican-controlled state legislature.
“It’s a reversal of the candidates’ positions,” says Hood. “Tillis feels like the incumbent, Hagan is the challenger.”
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