Split-ticket voters in Georgia are playing a significant role in tightening the Senate race between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Republican Herschel Walker — after reelecting Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) by a nearly 10-point margin.
Neither candidate in the Senate race has yet to surpass the 50% threshold necessary to avoid a runoff, with 84% of the vote counted. In the gubernatorial race between Kemp and his 2018 Democratic opponent, Stacey Abrams, the incumbent governor was declared the winner before 80% of precincts reported their results, given that he earned 54% of the vote and comfortably evaded a runoff.
KEMP CRUISES TO REELECTION OVER ABRAMS IN GEORGIA
Experts have predicted for months that vote-splitters, those who back a Republican in one race and abstain or choose a Democrat in the other, could be a deciding voting block in the Senate contest. Walker, who rose to folk-hero status in Georgia as a Heisman Trophy-winning football star, has been in a statistical tie with Warnock for the final weeks of the race. Kemp consistently and comfortably led Abrams in that same time frame.
While it’s rare for Georgia voters to split their ticket, a number of Republicans and independent Kemp voters have told pollsters that they were hesitating on backing Walker due to his string of controversies, including multiple accusations of domestic violence and reports that he paid for numerous women’s abortions despite campaigning on an anti-abortion platform.
While votes are still being counted, thus far Kemp has outperformed Walker statewide. The difference between the two Republicans’ performance is less noticeable in the state’s reddest counties, with Kemp usually beating Abrams by only slightly more than Walker beats Warnock. In more moderate areas, the difference is far clearer. In Fayette County, located 30 minutes south of Atlanta, Kemp is currently beating Abrams by 10%, while Warnock and Walker are only a few votes apart and tied at 48.9%.
The difference is even apparent in Democratic strongholds like Clarke County, where Warnock won with 71%, while Abrams only got 67%. In liberal Chatham County, where Savannah is located, Abrams leads Kemp by 11%, but Warnock leads Walker by 20%. Kemp is currently leading Abrams in rural Clay County 51% to 49%, while Warnock is beating Walker 51% to 47%.
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Vote-splitting is not exclusive to Georgia this election cycle. Pennsylvania voters easily elected state Attorney General Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, to the governor’s mansion over Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano. In the state’s Senate race between Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat, and celebrity physician Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican, however, the two remained locked in a dead heat.
With 80% of precincts reporting, Fetterman currently leads Oz by 1 point, while Shapiro beat Mastriano, who was at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 and worked to try and overturn the 2020 election results in Pennsylvania, by more than 11 points.
