THE REPUBLICAN SENATE FORMULA. Tuesday’s newsletter covered the fact that GOP strategists believe the race for control of the House is over. “The midterm results, as far as the House of Representatives is concerned, are pretty much set in stone,” it said. “Republicans are going to win. Democrats are going to lose.” That’s the House. Now, what about the Senate?

It’s really a pretty short and simple story. “It starts with holding on to what you have,” said a GOP strategist involved in a number of Senate races. That means Republicans winning currently Republican seats in North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The strategist feels good about winning the first three and now, after the strange and troubling debate between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, believes the GOP will win there, too.