Barack Obama’s average approval rating is currently just below 43 percent. If that sustains itself through November, says Real Clear Politics‘s Sean Trende, Democrats running for the Senate this year could be in trouble. Trende has run the numbers on how presidential approval relates to performance of the in-party’s Senate candidates and sees a pattern.

“[I]n the 31 competitive Senate races held in 2010 and 2012, the Democratic candidate has run within five points of the president’s job approval in 23 of them (75 percent),” he writes. “Additionally, no Democratic candidate in a competitive race has run more than 10 points ahead of the president’s job approval (or behind it).”