Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will step down in November, paving the way for a new leadership race to kick off with former President Donald Trump’s influence looming large as the likely Republican nominee.
Once allies, McConnell and Trump’s relationship soured after the former president refused to accept the results of the 2020 election. The longest-serving leader in Senate history is expected to have a say in who replaces him as leader, but Trump’s influence could sway the decision. Recently, Trump’s support has played heavily in intraparty politics. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was ousted from the role in October 2023 by staunch supporters of Trump, and Rep. Mike Johnson (R-AL), a Trump ally, was chosen as his replacement.
The contenders: “Three Johns”
The “three Johns” who are regarded as the leading candidates to take over McConnell’s leadership role have shown a willingness to work with Trump. Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD) recently endorsed Trump after being critical of the former president over his alleged role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Trump called Thune a “RINO,” or Republican in name only, and endorsed his challenger in 2022. Thune’s endorsement of Trump signals an attempt to bolster support in preparation for making a run at the top Republican leadership post.
Another floated contender, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who served as Republican whip from 2013 to 2019, has also been critical of Trump. But Cornyn might have turned a corner when he endorsed the Republican front-runner on Jan. 23.
“It will be difficult for Cornyn to be an effective leader since he is anti-Trump, anti-gun, and will be focused on his highly competitive primary campaign in 2026,” Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a staunch Trump supporter, wrote on X on Wednesday.
“Hard to run from prison, Ken,” Cornyn wrote back, referring to Paxton’s securities fraud charges.
One “John” has never opposed the former president. Senate Republican Conference Chairman John Barrasso (R-WY) backed Trump’s reelection in January and often supports Trump-aligned GOP candidates, such as Kari Lake for Arizona Senate and Bernie Moreno for Ohio Senate.
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Apart from the “three Johns” likely in line to make a run for McConnell’s post, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) is another possible successor. Daines is leading GOP efforts to retake the Senate majority and has been churning out Trump-backed candidates ahead of November’s election. Daines became the first high-profile Senator to endorse Trump in April.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) previously mounted a challenge to McConnell in an attempt to become the Republican leader in 2022, but he only earned support from 10 members of his party. It’s unknown if he will mount a campaign for the position again, and backing from Trump may increase his chances. The former president and the Florida lawmaker worked together during the 2022 midterm elections when Scott was chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
