Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has presented Democrats with a fresh unity test two weeks into the government shutdown, daring them to oppose a bill to fund the Pentagon and other full-year spending measures that enjoy bipartisan support.
On Thursday, Republicans will hold a procedural vote on War Department funding, forcing Democrats to decide between the optics of blocking pay for more than a million troops and sticking to their guns on their demand for healthcare concessions.
Separately, Thune has teed up a measure that would allow the Senate to negotiate with House leadership a three-bill “minibus” passed earlier this year.
The gambit, a departure from the simpler, short-term funding extension Thune has brought to the floor unsuccessfully eight times, could entice the rank-and-file Democrats who have so far sided with their party leadership in the shutdown fight.
Democrats believe they have a winning issue on healthcare — their demands are centered on premium Obamacare subsidies that expire at the end of the year — and have kept all but three senators in their caucus in line.
But Democratic appropriators have a lot invested in the minibus Republicans want to finish negotiating with the House, which covers agencies such as Veterans Affairs and the Food and Drug Administration.
Thune also wants to pair the Pentagon bill with other annual spending bills, creating a second bundle that would also require cooperation from the Democrats.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), the Senate’s top appropriator, said last week that her preference would be to link Pentagon funding with the Labor Department and Health and Human Services funding bill.
“I think the goal is to see what the traffic will bear in terms of additional bills,” Thune told reporters on Wednesday. “I mean, we would like to put together a package, like we did last time on the floor, which will take consent, and if we can get on defense appropriations, which we’ll vote on tomorrow, then we can start that negotiation process.”
Thune’s decision to jump-start the appropriations process, which stalled out as the shutdown became imminent, presents a win-win for Republicans politically. If Democrats balk, he can paint them as obstructionists unwilling to vote for bills they previously supported.
The White House diverted funding to keep service members paid, but the GOP has kept up the message that Democrats are hurting troops with the shutdown, and the Pentagon vote provides them with a fresh pressure point.
Conversely, Democrats would undermine their negotiating position if they go along with Thune’s plan. They have so far refused to give him the votes to reopen the government without assurances that the Obamacare subsidies will be extended. If they acquiesce on full-year spending bills, Republicans will have cracked their shutdown blockade.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) expressed skepticism on Wednesday that Democrats would be willing to move off their demands.
“We’ll see how that turns out. My suspicion is that Democrats are going to play the same political games and stop that,” he said at a press conference. “I hope I’m surprised by that, but we’ll see.”
The House has been on recess for almost a month, a controversial move designed to pressure Democrats to accept the short-term extension House Republicans passed on Sept. 19, but Johnson signaled they could come back if there is a Senate breakthrough.
“We’re on a 48-hour return notice for House Republicans — the House itself,” he said. “Dependent on action in the Senate, we can get all this moving again.”
The play for Democrats has so far been to wait Republicans out until at least Nov. 1, when open enrollment begins and millions of beneficiaries are faced with large rate hikes due to the lapsing Obamacare subsidies.
President Donald Trump’s decision to continue cutting paychecks for service members, plus a separate decision to keep a welfare program for low-income mothers afloat, means that Democrats have less incentive to buckle.
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“I say to my Republican colleagues, especially in the House: You can’t hide from your constituents forever,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said in a Wednesday floor speech. “The American people expect Congress to fix this healthcare crisis.”
Thune said there are still behind-the-scenes negotiations about possible off-ramps, but neither side is willing to be seen as capitulating. Senate GOP leadership floated a token vote on the subsidies as one possible concession last week, but Democrats swiftly rejected it.
