Hillary Clinton, nearly appointed the next president by the media, actually will have a hard time winning due to the rotten economy, President Obama’s slumping approval rating and America’s desire for change after a two-term president, according to two political prognosticators.
The election “starts out in the Republican’s favor,” said John Sides, who, with Lynn Vavreck, wrote “The Gamble,” a study of the 2012 election that produced a model to predict presidential elections.
Lecturing at the University of Arkansas Clinton School of Public Service, the duo said the economy has to register at least a 2 percent growth rate and Obama a 50 percent approval rating for Clinton to be a lock. The GDP is on the comeback, reaching 4.2 percent growth in the second quarter, but Obama’s Gallup approval is 42 percent.
Based on polling of 45,000 Americans, they added that Republican primary voters want a moderate with libertarian leanings. “You need a candidate that’s probably a consensus candidate and that’s probably not like a [Texas Sen.] Ted Cruz,” said Sides, a George Washington University professor. He said former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie fit the bill better.
Vavreck added Ohio Sen. Rob Portman to the list. An unknown nationally, “he gets to come on to the national stage and tell his story for the first time,” she said. What’s more, she added, he is on the leading edge of the GOP’s shift on same-sex marriage, having endorsed it after his son said he is gay.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected].
