It has taken a while for what is likely to be the most-watched race this fall, the Virginia gubernatorial election, to get interesting.
Without really trying, former Clinton fundraiser and ex-Gov. Terry McAuliffe won with 62% in the Democratic primary in June, picked up President Joe Biden’s backing, and immediately readied negative ads on whoever would win the GOP convention.
Then, in a surprise, investment manager Glenn Youngkin topped several challengers to win the Republican nomination and turned his attention to introducing himself to the state with positive ads backed by a fat bank account and the endorsement of former President Donald Trump.
For weeks, it went as planned. McAuliffe tied Youngkin to Trump in a state the former president lost. Youngkin, meanwhile, gave a hopeful view of the future in ads, even using his pooches to mock the Democrat’s attacks.
But this week, it started to feel more like the fall, especially with polls showing a neck-and-neck race. Youngkin revealed an extensive economic plan that included using the state’s $1.5 billion rainy-day fund to give families $600, children a $500 school voucher, law enforcement a $5,000 retention bonus, and a promise of rural broadband, among other proposals shown below.
“We actually overtaxed Virginians over the last year, and this is Virginians’ money, and it should go back to them,” Youngkin told Secrets. He also put down a firm promise to keep Virginia open if the coronavirus continues and to put children back in class five days a week.
McAuliffe reacted by turning up the negative ads. Some in the media joined in, hitting Youngkin’s management of the sprawling Carlyle Group but not mentioning McAuliffe’s past business blunders.
Terry McAuliffe touts endorsement from group that supports defunding police, abolishing prisons https://t.co/JMizsiZBHm
— Team Youngkin (@TeamYoungkin) July 31, 2021
While some in the GOP fear Youngkin is moving too slowly, others see a comparison to the 1997 campaign by Jim Gilmore, who used a promise to kill the state’s unpopular car tax to come from behind to win the governorship.
Gilmore said he was confident it could work. “There’s still plenty of time for him to draw that contrast with McAuliffe,” said Gilmore, a Trump-era ambassador.
Quentin Kidd, the dean of Christopher Newport University’s College of Social Sciences, agreed that the payback to voters, especially those in the suburbs, could be what turns the election.
“That may be it: ‘It’s your money.’ Three words,” he said, comparing it to the impact of Gilmore’s car tax pledge.
Glenn’s economic plan will slash funding for schools and other services.
Glenn, I know you’re new at this but smart investments grow our economy, not reckless cuts.https://t.co/QGXQqA1SYe
— Terry McAuliffe (@TerryMcAuliffe) August 4, 2021
Up to now, though, Kidd said that Youngkin has appeared to have difficulty building a base that includes traditional Republicans, Trump supporters, and suburban centrists. “They may figure out a way to stretch his arms, but it looks like that’s what he’s struggling with right now,” said Kidd.
The state’s top political analyst, the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato, said McAuliffe appears good with simply labeling Youngkin as a Trump acolyte, though the candidate doesn’t reference Trump often.
But Sabato said that might not work. “Will it be enough with Trump out of office?” he asked.
For his part, Youngkin isn’t running from Trump but including the former president’s supporters in a larger base. “President Trump’s endorsement was one that I greatly appreciated,” he said.
“I’m not running from him, but I also recognize that this is about all Republicans and all Virginians.”
The approach may be working. The most recent poll on the race, from Trafalgar Group in mid-July, had McAuliffe leading 46.8%-45%.
And Youngkin said he’s picking up support from some unusual people. “What has been most encouraging and inspiring is the number of Democrats who have come up to me on the campaign trail and said, ‘Glenn, I have been a lifelong Democrat. … But we’re voting for you because of the future you have described.’ That is happening all over Virginia,” he said.

