Growth in the Hispanic vote has surged 37 percent since the last presidential election, reaching a record 27.3 million, but it’s not a lock to push Hillary Rodham Clinton over the top, according to a new analysis.
In reviewing the numbers, the Pew Research Center said that 12 percent of all voters poised to step into the ballot booths on November 8 are Latino.
What’s more, they overwhelmingly back Democrats. Pew said that 54 percent of Latino registered voters say “the Democratic Party has more concern for Latinos than the Republican Party, while 11 percent say the same of the GOP.”
The rise in Latino voters comes as President Obama and the Clinton campaign have expanded efforts to increase voter registration among the new immigrants. A Washington Post report Saturday said the numbers are up, but that they might have increased anyway because of population growth.
Pew also pointed out two other potential drags on the pro-Democratic Hispanic vote.
First, those who are “certain” to vote are down since 2012. “This year, 69 percent of Latinos are ‘absolutely certain’ they will vote in November, down from 77 percent in 2012. In past elections, the Latino voter turnout rate has lagged that of other groups. For example, in 2012 Latinos had a turnout rate of 48 percent, compared with 67 percent for blacks and 64 percent for whites,” said Pew.
Second, they have grown dissatisfied with the direction of the country under Obama. “In 2016, 57 percent of Hispanic voters say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country, up from 50 percent in 2012. Among them, those born in the U.S. are more dissatisfied than immigrants, 63 percent to 45 percent.”
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]
