With no sitting U.S. senator yet bowing out of the upcoming elections, 2018 is poised to be the first since popular elections were ordered 104 years ago with no retirements, a sharp detour from recent elections.
Over the past 25 years, an average of seven senators facing re-election have decided to retire instead, but so far nobody wants to leave the swamp next year.
The Most Competitive States for US Senate Elections: https://t.co/WcQk0z1cH8 pic.twitter.com/6ABXi0BbtB
— Eric Ostermeier (@SmartPolitics) July 10, 2017
“Thus far, none of the 33 incumbents have announced that they won’t be running for re-election, which raises the question of whether or not such a scenario has ever played out during the direct election era,” said Eric J. Ostermeier, who runs the Smart Politics blog for the University of Minnesota’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance.
At least two senators did not seek another term in the 52 election cycles since the passage of the 17th Amendment requiring a popular vote, according to his research.
In four cycles, just two senators didn’t run. In four others, 10 or more retired: 1978, 1996, 2010 and 2012.
Control of the Senate and the war over President Trump are driving the 2018 cycle. Two senators were expected to retire — Utah Republican Orrin Hatch and California Democrat Dianne Feinstein — but they signed up for another bid for a six-year term.
Ostermeier said four others are “playing coy.”
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]
