The presidential race is likely locked in a dead heat for the rest of the election, and the only chance for a big breakout by Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton is the first debate, according to the latest GW Battleground poll released Wednesday.
“We do not expect major movement in the ballot measurement of the presidential race, even as both the Trump and Clinton campaigns increase their paid media, and look to the presidential debates, particularly the first debate, to be the next and perhaps last opportunity to change the presidential landscape in any significant way,” said Republican pollsters Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber.
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Democrat Celinda Lake, who conducts the poll with the Goeas, said, however, that it was Clinton’s to lose. “Despite close numbers, Hillary Clinton is poised to win by dominating the issue dimensions of governing, caring, temperament and being for the middle class,” she said. “The key is to have voters focus on the true choice for the country.”
In fact, Clinton is winning on many policy issues, while Trump is winning on character issues.
And in a four-way contest, Clinton tops Trump 42 percent to 40 percent. Key elements from the George Washington University Battleground Poll:
— On the issues facing the country, the voters surveyed felt that Clinton was better prepared to face challenges on the economy (51 percent to 46) and foreign affairs (55 percent to 40) and was the better choice to fight for the middle class (50 percent to 43). The candidates were essentially tied on jobs (49 percent to 47).
— On questions of character, Trump was rated higher on “say(ing) what they believe” (59 percent to 30) and being “honest and trustworthy” (39 percent to 35 percent), and tied on being a “strong leader” (46 percent to Clinton’s 45). Trump fares poorly when asked if he or Clinton better represents someone who “has the temperament needed to serve” (31 percent to Clinton’s 57).
— Clinton narrowly edged out Trump when rating who “is healthy enough to be effective” (43 percent to 41, respectively).
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]
