Enjoy those slightly cheaper gas prices now because come summer, experts are predicting a huge price jump, likely back over $4 a gallon.
Oil analyst Steven Kopits said that oil markets are being driven by changing factors, such as:
- The war in Ukraine is likely to drive up demand.
- Second, as China’s economy recovers, it will drink down more crude.
- And as COVID disappears worldwide, big industries will turn up their production.
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In an analysis for his Wall Street clients, Kopits cited another expert who said a price of $140 a barrel should be expected. It is now about $80, and prices are already surging back past an AAA national average of $3.42 a gallon.
But Kopits, also an immigration expert Secrets often quotes, said if all three factors hit the economy at once, “I would not be surprised if oil peaked, at least for a time, above $180/barrel.”
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He explained, “At present, we are off trend, and by quite a bit, due to the COVID pandemic and the resulting lockdowns. Compared to the ’97-’03 trend line, consumption was 3.3 [million barrels per day] below expectations in 2022 and falls 3.4 mbpd below trend in 2023 … to return to trend, consumption would have to grow 4.5% in 2023.”
He told Secrets that the last all-time high price for oil was $147 in 2008 and gas over $4 a gallon.
