She has been mocked by elites for suggesting that politically divided liberals and conservatives stop faking it and get a “national divorce,” but pollsters who have studied the controversy agree that there is widespread support for Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s proposition of a red-state-blue-state breakup.
“It’s across the board,” said Jeremy Zogby, pollster and managing partner at Zogby Strategies, which has studied the issue for years. “It’s staggering to the extent it cuts across all demographics,” he told Secrets.
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Other pollsters, notably the left-right team that has conducted the Battleground Poll, have also found the nation leaning toward civil war for years. In that survey, more see the potential for civil war.
“When asked to rate the level of political division in the country on a scale from 0 to 100 where 0 is no division and 100 is division on the edge of a civil war, respondents led to a mean score of 71,” said the last version of the survey.
Critics of Greene’s political “divorce” have portrayed her continued explanation of the plan as “loony,” but Zogby and his father, pollster John Zogby, said that the idea has been around for years and is gaining steam not just in the United States but overseas.
On their weekly podcast, John Zogby said that Greene’s plan, which would encourage red and blue states to break up while keeping a smaller national government, has helped to kick up the debate.
“Marjorie Taylor Green, three words that I really never thought that I’d be discussing about anything, let alone on this podcast, sent out a tweet that’s had an enormous response and ripple effect in which she calls for a national divorce,” he said.
He noted that he and Jeremy Zogby have polled on the issue for years and that there is “nothing in our polling that would contradict” her view of the division in the country.
In a National Divorce, our Department of Defense would defend America’s borders not be on the verge of WWIII with Russia and China because our overly powerful federal warlords serve Ukraine first. https://t.co/CM0R6RP8As
— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene?? (@RepMTG) February 22, 2023
Jeremy Zogby provided Secrets data from recent polling showing substantial support from Democrats, Republicans, all ages, and parts of the country for a potential divide.
In July 2020 data, for example, when asked if “states seceding from the Union” is legal or illegal, 39% said illegal, 36% said legal, and the rest were unsure. Among Democrats, 43% said legal, to 32% illegal. Of Republicans, 46% said illegal, to 36% legal.
In a second question asked in December 2021, the parties were split when asked if the nation’s partisans could make up. He said that 47% said that they “will overcome the current political and cultural divide and form a national unity again.” But 29% said it is time “to engage in something like a national divorce,” and “significantly” 24% were unsure.
“When tracking these numbers over time, it becomes clear a sizable portion of the American public keeps a plan B in case all else fails. While half of the public in the latter poll believe we’ll overcome the increasing partisan warfare — nearly one-third, cutting across major demographics, believe that the train may have left the station,” said Jeremy Zogby.
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“New Yorkers,” said @zogbystrategies analyst Jeremy Zogby, are looking “elsewhere as the ‘Empire State’ is increasingly viewed as ‘the Imperial State,’ or even the ‘Vampire State.’”https://t.co/klUEV8UGjD pic.twitter.com/2MeknamwI1
— Paul Bedard (@SecretsBedard) March 14, 2022
A student of world history, he said that the trend has already taken root in the U.S., with Californians moving to Texas and New Yorkers to Florida.
“This is not new,” said John Zogby.
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And current issues stirring in the nation may prompt greater debate, they said. Jeremy Zogby, for example, cited the rail disaster in East Palestine, Ohio, and the political fallout that has dogged the Biden administration and anger at him for seeming to ignore the crisis in favor of giving attention and billions of dollars to Ukraine.
The chemical spill and poor response may be the “tipping point,” said Jeremy Zogby. “I don’t think it’s going to go away, that sentiment. I mean, our polling data has continuously shown that there’s a sizable portion of the public that would be in favor of” a Greene-style divorce.
