The first election slated to test 2020 candidates, Virginia’s statewide legislative balloting, shows a surge for Democrats and a disadvantage for candidates who support President Trump, according to a just-released survey of likely voters in the commonwealth.
In the state, which has gone blue for the last three presidential elections after 10 straight voting Republican, Democrats have a 49% to 36% edge on the generic ballot and a 62% to 49% lead in enthusiasm, according to the survey from the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy Survey Research Lab at Christopher Newport University.
The survey suggests that the state House of Delegates and Senate could both be controlled by Democrats after Nov. 5, which would give Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam a chance to push through elements of his agenda, including gun control.
Our 1st test of the 2020 ballot suggests, Trump, at just 37% approve in this poll, is losing to “generic Dem” by 15 pts. We want to note an imp point: the survey was largely in the field BEFORE the Ukraine scandal. Keep that in mind also for the above data. pic.twitter.com/dwwuHACl75
— The Wason Center (@WasonCenter) October 7, 2019
While focused on the state, the poll from the Newport News, Virginia, school tested national questions such as support for Trump and impeachment, and the results should buoy Democrats as they head into the 2020 election season.
In testing Trump’s support in the state he lost to Hillary Rodham Clinton 44% to 49% in 2016, 59% of voters said they were “less likely to vote for a state legislative candidate who supports” him, said the survey. Some 37% said they were “more likely to vote for such a candidate.”
Asked about impeachment, the results were closer, though the poll was taken before the latest reports on Trump’s Ukraine phone call. The survey analysis reported that “49% of voters said they were more likely to vote for a candidate who supports impeachment, while 44% said they were less likely.”
It also found higher support for liberal positions on some national issues. “It’s clear that national politics are on the minds of Virginia voters this fall,” said Quentin Kidd, the Wason Center’s director. “Like or not, there’s no way for state legislative candidates to run in a vacuum — their national party brands influence their fortunes.”
