Mitt Romney’s slow but seemingly successful trudge to the GOP nomination aside, President Obama is a virtual lock to win a second term, according to a blockbuster election analysis by Ipsos.
The bottom line, said Ipsos’ polling director Clifford Young: If Obama’s weak approval rating stays at 47 percent, there is an 85 percent chance he wins reelection. Should it rise to 50 percent or better, which is the goal of the Obama-Biden campaign, he stands a 99 percent chance of winning.
“The Republican primaries are nothing more than an interesting side-show to an eventual Obama victory,” said Young, managing director of Ipsos Public Affairs’ U.S. polling. He tells Secrets: “Obama is the odds-on favorite barring some unforeseen random event. As such, we really should not be asking who will win the presidency but instead who will hold the House and Senate and will Obama be able to govern?”
A key Democratic official cheered the Ipsos analysis and added that Obama’s strength is growing in states with key Senate races and strong coattails in those elections will help keep Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and his team in control of the chamber.
Young’s model is based on the results of 187 elections in 35 countries. In it, he determines that this year is neither a “change election” or “continuity election,” but a “middling election,” where voters are concerned about the economy and foreign affairs, but also one in which personality and incumbency play a key role. Obama remains personally popular and plans to use his incumbency to campaign for reelection like no other president has.
Typically, said Young, middling elections are also characterized by presidents with approval ratings in the 40 percent to 50 percent range. “If his approval numbers were to hold at this level (47 percent), Obama would have about an 85 percent chance of winning in November. If the winds of political and economic fortune push his approval rating above 50 percentage points, Obama’s chances of winning go to almost 99 percent,” said Young, adding that the prez should get a bounce from improving economic conditions.
