President Trump, riding the surging economy to better approval ratings, is giving top-tier potential Democratic Senate candidates pause as they mull taking on Republican candidates with strong ties to the White House in 2020.
At least seven Democrats have refused to enter Senate races in states the party has invested in, a surprise since some of those states have been judged on the verge of turning liberal blue.
As a result, the party is scrambling for new challengers to Republican incumbents in Texas, Georgia, Iowa, Colorado, Montana, and Maine.
“The president’s policies to make America great again are working and his message is resonating. What Democrat wants to run against success?” said GOP and Trump 2016 pollster John McLaughlin.
Considered an easy target during the 2018 midterm congressional elections, when special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia election interference investigation was hot and the economy not, the White House has seen the playing field radically changed in Trump’s favor.
“In 2020, the Democratic party is facing a president with a record setting economy, complete and total exoneration from the Mueller report, and he’s got a nimble and well-organized reelection campaign and that’s paired with a fully integrated Republican Party apparatus,” said a Trump insider.
Trump believes that his turnaround, and the threat he poses to foes in states he is welcomed in, have scared off challengers to his Senate supporters.
Some of those who have decided against running are major Democratic Party stars, leaving the Oval Office giddy with their rejection of a Senate run.
They include former Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams who balked at challenging Trump ally Sen. David Perdue. The White House believes that Trump’s eleventh-hour visit to Georgia during the gubernatorial campaign helped to defeat Abrams in 2018. She has hinted this week of a 2020 presidential bid.
Also, former Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke has passed on a second shot at the Senate in Texas where Sen. John Cornyn is up for reelection. O’Rourke did so well against Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 that many in the media suggested the state was turning Democrat. Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro also said no.
In Iowa, Rep. Cindy Axne and former Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack decided against challenging Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
In Maine, former Obama aide Susan Rice decided against running against Sen. Susan Collins.
And in Montana, Republican Sen. Steve Daines looks good now that Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock has decided on a presidential bid.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee expects the trend to continue as wary Democrats reject wooing from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. “Schumer’s struggle to land his most sought-after recruits is a good indication of difficult it will be for Democrats to mount successful campaigns against our well-funded, battle-tested Republican incumbents,” said NRSC’s Jesse Hunt.
The White House, GOP political establishment, and pollsters said the improving economy and end of the Mueller investigation have been the key factors in boosting the president well before the reelection campaign kicks in.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen noted that Trump’s approval ratings have been slow to rise, but he expects it to happen — and right before the 2020 election.
“It is possible that opinions about President Trump are so hardened that nothing will change them. However, it often takes time before growing economic confidence translates into political benefits for the party in power. If that’s the case, the president’s ratings should start to inch up this fall,” he said.
A key ally of Trump said the struggle the Democrats are having wooing top-tier Senate candidates is a leading-edge indicator of 2020 and a sign the opponents feel Trump and his Senate ticket will be hard to beat.
“If the president were weak we’d see these people in these races. I think that they see a strong president, they see a strong group of Republican senators right there with him,” said the ally on background.
“He is the turnout factor and the turnout driver in 2020. And if people thought he was vulnerable, then Democratic candidates would be getting on the coattails of their 2020 presidential candidate and coast into office. And we just aren’t seeing this across the states,” added the insider.
McLaughlin agreed and said the Democratic presidential candidates are not inspiring others to run down-ticket. “Although I don’t get invited to the Democratic candidate recruitment meetings, it seems that the dynamics of the anti-Trump derangement derby for president is discouraging down-ticket Democrats. What moderate Democrat wants to run with socialists like Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, or Sen. Kamala Harris? Many Democrats know that Joe Biden is much weaker than he looks and is probably not going to win the nomination. In contrast, since the State of the Union address, the president has been increasing his job approval ratings — particularly on the economy and security,” he said.
