Iowa: Trump gets liberals, Cruz Evangelicals, 39%-27%

The Iowa Caucuses have turned into a two-man fight, with Donald Trump leading slightly 31 percent to 29 percent, winning moderate and liberal Republicans and Sen Ted Cruz shoring up support among conservatives, Tea Party supporters and Evangelical Christians, according to a new poll published Tuesday.

Among “likely Republican Caucus participants,” the Quinnipiac University poll put Sen. Marco Rubio at 13 percent and had no other candidate above 7 percent.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, once the assumed front-runner, is at 4 percent, behind the slumping Ben Carson at 7 percent.

There is hope for all, however, with fickle Iowa voters: “39 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind,” said the poll.

“Despite Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Donald Trump and Gov. Terry Branstad’s criticism of Sen. Ted Cruz, and despite – or because of – Sen. Cruz’ ‘New York values’ comments, the Iowa Republican Caucus remains too close to call,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

“It all comes down to turnout. And with four in 10 likely caucus participants saying they still might change their mind, this is an especially volatile race,” Brown added.

Key findings from the poll release:

Cruz leads Trump:

50 – 34 percent among self-professed Tea Party members;

39 – 27 percent among white, born-again Evangelical Christians;

49 – 29 percent among voters describing themselves as “very conservative.”

Trump leads Cruz:

29 – 21 percent among self-identified “somewhat conservative” voters;

37 – 6 percent among voters claiming to be “moderate” or “liberal.”

From January 18 – 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 651 Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected].