Some 1,138 days into office, President Obama’s Gallup job approval rating ranks eighth out of the last 10 presidents, and seven points under former President Jimmy Carter who was easily knocked out by former President Reagan in a recession election. Of the two below him, George H.W. Bush and Harry Truman, Bush lost and Truman squeaked by in his historic comeback reelection.
Obama’s low 45 percent approval rating is being highlighted by groups like the GOP super PAC American Crossroads to fight media coverage focused on the president’s improving reelection prospects. The group on Wednesday dispatched an email detailing the Gallup approval ratings, noting that “Barack Obama is a weak president running a hugely expensive reelection cqmapign that has yet to do anything to revive his stagnant approval ratings.”
Obama surrogates, however, claim that the president’s approval ratings have bottomed out and should rise as he starts to campaign harder, advertises in key states and turns his attention to the eventual GOP presidential nominee.
Below is the American Crossroads memo:
The last few days have seen the see-saw of presidential news coverage tilt almost fully toward the prospect of an Obama reelection.
Yet, regardless of whether political commentators ‘feel” that Obama will get a second term, the data tell another story.
Below are the Gallup job approval rating for the last ten sitting presidents after 1,138 days in office:
Barack Obama: 45% approve
George W. Bush: 49% approve
Bill Clinton: 54% approve
George H. W. Bush: 41% approve
Ronald Reagan: 54% approve
Jimmy Carter: 52% approve
Richard Nixon: 56% approve
Lyndon Johnson: 47% approve
Dwight Eisenhower: 72% approve
Harry Truman: 39% approve
You can’t make it up: Obama ranks eighth out of the last ten presidents in job approval after serving three years in office. (Note: Kennedy and Ford also had higher approval ratings than Obama – but neither lasted 1,138 days in office.)
Historically, only two presidents since the advent of telephone polling had lower approval ratings than Obama this far into their presidencies: George H. W. Bush and Harry Truman. Bush lost, and Truman won relatively few electoral votes for a reelected incumbent.
Jimmy Carter held a higher approval rating than Obama – and he was soundly defeated for re-election. LBJ’s was higher – and he was so unpopular he declined to run for a second full term.
And Obama’s current numbers do not even account for the prospect of $5 per gallon gasoline this summer.
Barack Obama is a weak president running a hugely expensive reelection campaign that has yet to do anything to revive his stagnant approval ratings. At the moment when he should be strongest and his opponents weakest, Obama’s job approval ratings are at the bottom of the historic barrel. Obama is raising significantly less money than the campaign initially expected – to the point that his handlers are now raising money through outside groups they previously called “threats to democracy,” and have even ruled out helping Democrats running for House and Senate.
Take a longer view of this election, strip away emotions and feelings, and we are back to looking at the most competitive reelection campaign in modern presidential history, with the sitting president facing a historically measurable disadvantage.
