With the likely help of Republican voters dissatisfied with their presidential choices, Hillary Clinton is now poised to win the presidency in blowout fashion, according to a new and authoritative Electoral Map update.
The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, which previously had Clinton and Donald Trump in an Electoral College shootout with neither having enough to get to the needed 270, now has Clinton with a whopping 347 Electoral Votes.
Map 1: First version of Crystal Ball 2016 Electoral College ratings, May 2015
What’s more, while the prior map showed 85 votes “up for grabs” in states like Florida, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia, the new map has no toss up states, with those four now in the “leans Democratic” category.
“Election analysts prefer close elections, but there was nothing we could do to make this one close. Clinton’s total is 347 electoral votes, which includes 190 safe, 57 likely, and 100 that lean in her direction. Trump has a total of 191 (142 safe, 48 likely, and 1 leans),” said the authors of the report posted on the weekly “Crystal Ball,” from UVA’s Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley.
Map 2: Revised Crystal Ball 2016 Electoral College ratings for a Clinton vs. Trump matchup
The change, they explain, is the result of Trump’s recent troubles and verbal muffs, and the threat that over 10 percent of Republican voters will back Clinton.
They also said that the map isn’t much better if Sen. Ted Cruz is the nominee instead of Trump.
“Cruz is well to the right of recent Republican presidential nominees and disliked greatly by many elected GOP officials. Moreover, goaded by Trump, Cruz has made some extreme statements on immigration and other topics that are sure to stimulate minority participation in November. In some ways, Democrats might have an easier time attacking him: Cruz is a much more vocal social conservative, for instance, which plays right into the standard Democratic playbook of going after Republicans on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage,” the trio wrote.
All of this, of course, should gall Republicans. The reason: The report said that she is “beatable.” They wrote: “The irony is that Hillary Clinton is a beatable candidate. She has unique vulnerabilities, many a product of being shopworn after a quarter-century of public controversies.”
See the full analysis and the impact of potential vice presidential candidates on the race here.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]
