While the media and voters are focused on the Obama-Romney race, the GOP is about to reach a blockbuster high at another level in the fall elections: governorships. Already with 29 in hand, the Republicans are heading into November expected to win enough to match their 91-year-old record of 34.
And if Mitt Romney rolls President Obama in some of the states with gubernatorial races are safely Democratic, like Delaware, a record will be had.
Here’s the math, according to an analysis by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics for their Thursday “Crystal Ball” and provided in advance to Secrets. Analyst Geoffrey Skelley said that there are three toss-up races and expects the GOP to win them all: New Hampshire, Washington and Montana. He also sees the GOP winning North Carolina, which he categorizes as leaning Republican. That would give the GOP 33 sets, a post World War II highwater mark.
A tie for the record could come in West Virginia where Romney is expected to be strong due voter anger over unemployment and the administration’s anti-coal attitude.
“If Romney wins the Mountain State by a large enough margin, he could provide businessman Bill Maloney, Republican, enough help from his coattails to unseat Earl Ray Tomblin. But even if Republicans can’t win West Virginia to tie the all-time record, winning North Carolina, Montana, New Hampshire and Washington would give the party a new posWorld War II high-water mark of 33 governorships, besting the previous mark of 32 in 1998,” said Skelly.
Plus, in an era of less and less ticket splitting, added Skelly, performance by the presidential candidate will determine the down-ticket winners. “The presidential race should loom large in gubernatorial results,” he said.
