None of the three outsiders leading the Republican presidential race — Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina — are likely to win the nomination, and if they do, the GOP is likely to lose in 2016 in colossal fashion, according to the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
In its latest “Crystal Ball” analysis, Director Larry Sabato and his top experts dismissed Carson and Fiorina as even vice presidential material. Carson might win a job as Surgeon General and Fiorina a cabinet job in a GOP administration, they wrote.
And comparing Trump to the 1964 Republican nominee and general election loser Barry Goldwater, they said his nomination would crush the GOP.
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“Friends, there is no way on God’s green earth that the Republican Party hierarchy is going to allow Donald Trump to be their nominee for president if they have enough power to stop him. They hope that Trump will self-destruct, but they are willing to see some bloodletting if needed,” wrote Sabato and analysts Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley.
“Just as Goldwater’s ascension could not be derailed, perhaps Trump’s rise can’t be either. Nonetheless, party leaders believe the initials of the GOP will be changed to RIP if Trump is on the November 2016 ballot, and this near-unanimity of leadership opinion should be enough to defeat Trump one way or the other,” they added.
In the end, the trio said that the Republican Party is likely to turn to a standard bearer like Jeb Bush, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Ohio Gov. John Kasich or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
See the full Crystal Ball here.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected].
