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New polling today out of Ohio that shows Senate candidates J.D. Vance and Rep. Tim Ryan in a dead heat also sheds light on how the 2024 race is starting to shape up and who would do better than former President Donald Trump against President Joe Biden.
First, the Senate matchup. Republican Vance has a slight edge over Ryan, 46%-45%. The Emerson College Polling survey called that a “dead heat.”
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Polling head Spencer Kimball said, “For voters whom the economy is the top issue, 66% plan to vote for Vance and 22% Ryan. For those who say threats to democracy is their top issue, 81% plan to vote Ryan, and for those who say abortion is their top issue, 89% plan to vote for Ryan.”
It tested Biden and found his approval underwater, like most everywhere in the country. But it also looked at his chance of winning a reelection vote in the state that picked Trump in 2020, 53%-45%.
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Here’s what Kimball said in his analysis:
“Fifty-seven percent of Ohio voters disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, while 37% approve. In a hypothetical 2024 match-up between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, 48% would support Trump and 40% support Biden. Nine percent would support someone else and 3% are undecided. In a hypothetical match-up between Biden and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, DeSantis leads 49% to 38%. Seven percent are undecided and 6% would vote for someone else.”
DeSantis is currently running for reelection in Florida and is widely expected to challenge Trump in the 2024 primaries. While he runs behind Trump in GOP voter preference polls, Republican voters see him as the clear alternative if Trump does not run.
