Entering the 2016 elections, Democrats face a wide “enthusiasm gap” benefitting Republicans, according to a new poll.
The survey conducted by Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg found that 67 percent of Republican voters are jazzed to vote compared to just 52 percent of Democrats for a 15-point gap.
And while that’s bad, Greenberg predicted that Republicans will only get more eager to vote, egged on by last week’s Supreme Court rulings for Obamacare and same sex marriage.
Asked if the 67 percent enthusiasm was a floor or ceiling of GOP enthusiasm, Greenberg said, “I think it’s a floor.” Greenberg is chairman of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and co-founder of Democracy Corps.
Releasing a poll showing that an agenda focused on unmarried women, people of color and millennials — commonly called the “Rising American Electorate” — could turn things around for the Democrats, Greenberg said there is more than enough time for the party to catch up, especially since Hillary Clinton is already pushing that agenda.
He released the poll for the group Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund at a media briefing hosted by the Christian Science Monitor Monday.
The poll found that Clinton’s support among Democrats remains strong, that she would beat the Republican frontrunners in a general election, and that her agenda is supported. Page Gardner, president of the Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, suggested that as the Democrats and Clinton push an agenda focused on middle class economic issues, enthusiasm will grow.
Stan Greenberg, chairman of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and co-founder of Democracy Corps, and Page Gardner, president of the Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund. Michael Bonfigli/The Christian Science Monitor.
But the gap remains a big worry. The Democracy Corps memo accompanying the poll summed it up this way:
“Currently, only 52 percent of Democrats rate their level of interest in the 2016 elections as a 10, compared to 67 percent of Republican voters. Similar gaps emerge looking at [Rising American Electorate] and non-RAE voters, younger and older voters, and married women and unmarried women. African American turnout exceeded white turnout in 2012. Currently, however, African American interest trails white interest by 5 points.”
What drives the GOP? Greenberg said, “They don’t like Obama, they don’t like Hillary Clinton.” And, he added, “when they watch the Supreme Court on gay marriage on other issues, ACA, the Affordable Care Act, they see see that the only thing to stop them are the Republican presidential candidates, win an election and stop them.”
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected].
