Dragged down by the growing unpopularity of President Joe Biden in blue Virginia, Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s lead over businessman Republican Glenn Youngkin has shrunk to just four points — the margin of error in a just released poll.
McAuliffe, trying to be just the third former Virginia governor to win another term, leads Youngkin 49%-45% in the poll from the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University. The margin of error is 4.2 percentage points.
The school, one of the leading watchers of state politics, said McAuliffe has lost 5 points in his earlier lead over Youngkin.
“Democrat Terry McAuliffe maintains a narrow lead against Republican Glenn Youngkin, 49% to 45% in the race for governor. This represents a tightening in the race since our August 26 poll, which showed McAuliffe with a 9-point lead (50% to 41%),” said the analysis. It added, “Independent voters have shifted significantly, with Republican Youngkin gaining 11 points since late August (from 39% to 50%), while McAuliffe has lost ground among Independents (from 44% to 41%).”
The analysis of the survey made no mention of Biden’s unpopularity and McAuliffe’s earlier effort to embrace the president. But McAuliffe did earlier this week when he said, “We are facing a lot of headwinds from Washington, as you know. The president is unpopular today, unfortunately, in Virginia, so we have got to plow through.”
Instead, the survey looked at abortion as the key driver in the election and Youngkin’s effort to thread the needle on it.
A “strong majority” of voters, 61%, support laws protecting access to abortion, it found. A Texas-style law banning abortion after about six weeks is opposed 55%-36%
“The abortion issue has been tricky for Youngkin,” said Wason Center Research Director Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo. “Trying to navigate between moderate voters who oppose further restrictions while simultaneously appealing to the Republican base who would like a strong pro-life stance, Youngkin has said he would not have voted for the Texas law, but he’s been unclear about how far he would go to restrict abortions in Virginia,” she said in the release accompanying the poll this morning.
Working for Youngkin, former CEO of the massive Carlyle Group, a private equity firm, is GOP enthusiasm in the off-year election national pundits use to gauge the impact and popularity of new presidents.
The survey said that Republican likely voters are more enthusiastic about voting in this election than Democratic likely voters, 61% to 55% “very enthusiastic.”
The races for lieutenant governor and attorney general are also closing due to shifting independent voters, but Democrats hold the lead.
