The entry of West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice into the 2024 race to challenge Sen. Joe Manchin has shifted the key seat to the GOP and set up the Democrat’s likely first-ever election defeat, according to a politician grading site that was the first to declare Joe Biden the winner on election night.
“As West Virginia continues to solidify itself as a red bastion at all levels, Manchin has become the last Democrat standing. And we’re confident that 2024 will mark a historic shift in West Virginia history. We’re moving the West Virginia Senate race to Safe Republican,” declared Elections Daily today.
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Manchin has been in political hot water for years, but it has been boiling since Biden became president. Along the way, said the site, he has lost his popularity.
Enter Justice, the popular governor. He is likely to be the beneficiary of the once-blue state’s march into ruby-red Republican MAGA territory. He entered the Senate race last week, joining Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV) in the GOP’s battle to unseat Manchin.
? 2024 West Virginia Senate Rating Change by @Elections_Daily
Likely R ➡️ Safe Republicanhttps://t.co/ZOzmVlCtX7 pic.twitter.com/tSzta8gzxZ
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 4, 2023
Manchin, who has toyed with leaving the Democrats or becoming an independent, does not plan to announce his reelection decision until next year.
The site, which reviews political races, said Manchin is in trouble mostly because he isn’t liked. “The problem is that Manchin is actually wildly unpopular. After two years of supporting most Democratic priorities, Manchin has unsurprisingly seen his once rosy approvals dip to 40% or below,” said the new analysis.
And Justice is very popular, said Elections Daily, part of Decision Desk HQ.
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If their prediction comes true, the shift could be enough to restore GOP control of the Senate.
“Ultimately, we don’t believe Manchin has a true path to reelection at this point. The stars would truly need to realign in order to create a path forward. It’s unclear if Manchin will even run for reelection at this point, but even if he does, we think the state is certain to flip to the Republican Party,” said the site.
