President Joe Biden might want to rethink his recent pledge to run for reelection if former President Donald Trump also makes another try.
That’s because he is facing a new 2024 election poll showing him well behind the Republican, one of several polls detailing the voting public’s disappointment in the president.
In the latest Rasmussen Reports survey previewed by Secrets this morning, Trump leads Biden by 5 points, 46%-41%, well outside the margin of error.
That is a flip of the 2020 margin of Biden’s popular vote over Trump, 51%-46%.
It is driven in part by a shift of Hispanic and independent voter support to Trump, a solid 81% GOP base for the Republican, and growing support among suburbanites and college-educated voters, according to the survey, sponsored by the Heartland Institute.
What’s more, the new survey shows that a sizable 10% would pick someone else, a number that could prompt third-party candidates to look at running.
The survey also showed that most voters have an unfavorable view of Biden.
“Less than one year into his presidency, 52% of likely voters have an unfavorable impression of President Joe Biden. This is astounding, given the fact that the mainstream has given Biden the benefit of the doubt so often and glossed over his administration’s utter failures concerning the pandemic, inflation, foreign policy, et cetera” said Chris Talgo, senior editor and research fellow at the Heartland Institute. “On the other hand, 51% of likely voters now have a favorable opinion of former President Trump. In fact, more likely voters would vote for Trump over Biden if the next presidential election were held today. It seems like American voters are experiencing a classic case of voter’s remorse.”
In past Rasmussen polls, Trump has led Biden by as much as 13 points, the difference being the percentage of voters who want a third-party candidate.
Trump has signaled that he would like to run again. He has kept a fully operational fundraising arm, hosts frequent rallies, and is deeply involved in helping allies win the 2022 congressional midterm elections.
Biden has said he’d like to run for a second term if his health holds out. Recently asked about the chances of running against Trump again, he said, “That would increase the prospect of running.”
Other surveys, including Emerson, USA Today/Suffolk, and Harvard/Harris have also shown Trump with a lead of 2-8 points. The current Real Clear Politics polling lead by Trump is 4.8 points, with Trump at the same 46% shown in today’s Rasmussen Reports survey.
In yesterday’s Secrets, we reported on the often accurate betting odds, which also showed Trump solidly leading Biden, with a 3-1 chance of winning in 2024.
