While the media have been hyping polls showing Democrat Joe Biden with a sizable and growing lead over President Trump, the outfit that called the 2016 popular vote correctly shows the 2020 race neck and neck.
A week after finding that Trump closed a 10-point gap with Biden to just 3 points, Rasmussen Reports today revealed that Trump has edged up another point as Biden hits a ceiling.
On Wednesday, the race stood at 45% for Trump and 47% for Biden, well within the poll’s margin of error. It was published in Rasmussen’s weekly “White House Watch” feature.
Separately, Rasmussen said that Trump has boosted his approval rating to 49%, with 50% of respondents disapproving.
What’s more, at this stage of his presidency, former President Barack Obama also had a 49% approval rating and went on to win reelection with 51% of the vote.
Unlike some polls that undercount Republicans and survey adults or registered voters, Rasmussen slightly overcounts Democrats and polls likely voters, which is considered more accurate. In 2016, it had Hillary Clinton leading Trump nationally on the eve of the election by 2 points. Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points.
Noon tomorrow we release another Biden vs Trump match-up poll – 2500 National Likely Voters
Some pollsters are apparently lowering their GOP sample % now in Registered Voters polls then show them much higher near elections.
Below – our weights & how they worked in 2016 & 2020. https://t.co/qbbgv6VCiT
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) July 21, 2020
And Trump could actually be in better shape based on his generally praised performance Tuesday at his first coronavirus press briefing in months.
In another finding, Rasmussen validated voter enthusiasm on both sides. The pollster said, “The good news for Biden is that 71% of Democrats are now enthusiastic about a Trump-Biden election, up from 57% in late April. Seventy-five percent (75%) of Republicans are excited by a choice between President Trump and the former vice president, compared to 71% in the earlier survey.”
Polling 101: And now – in preparation for our noon Trump vs Biden match-up poll of 2500 national Likely Voters – here is an article from Pew Research discussing the margin of error in election polls https://t.co/2rMicwXmBl
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) July 22, 2020
