President Trump is “well-positioned” for re-election in 2020 and is keeping his base of supporters together strongly enough to lift the Republican Party’s chances in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections, according to two pollsters close to the White House.
“I think he is in good shape,” said Anne Sorock, a national political researcher and executive director of the Frontier Lab’s Ear to the Ground Listening Project.
“Trump will be well-positioned for the 2020 election,” added the president’s 2016 pollster, John McLaughlin.
Despite his approval rating hovering below 50 percent, both said Trump is collecting enough victories on his agenda to raise his numbers in time, though McLaughlin said he needs to focus on “broadening” support among independents and moderates.
Deep state Never Trumpers have to be going nuts @realDonaldTrump up again 51% job approval. Daily Presidential Tracking Poll – Rasmussen Reports® https://t.co/GbHI7GAIoq
— John McLaughlin (@jmclghln) April 16, 2018
Trump, he added, can “pick up some Democrats with his populist message about draining the swamp, the same anti-Washington, same populist message that got him elected, then he could actually go above 50 percent.”
And, he said, the possibility that the Democrats will choose an ultra-liberal 2020 nominee will help Trump. “He’s got an agenda, he’s got a message, and the Democrats are going to nominate somebody who’s radically opposed to him that he’ll be able to beat.”
Both Sorock and McLaughlin said Trump’s strong standing among conservatives and Republicans, a majority of whom see him as their “leader,” is helping the GOP’s chances of maintaining control of the House and Senate.
“This is the party of Trump,” said McLaughlin, who, with his brother, polls for nearly two dozen Republicans. “A lot of Republican insiders will tell you, ‘Oh, Trump is going to hurt us, Trump’s upside down [in polling.] I’m like, ‘Look at the approval/disapproval rating of the Republican majority in Congress. Trump’s holding you guys up.”
Sorock, who just released a poll done for her group by McLaughlin showing vast support on both sides of the aisle for Trump’s call to “drain the swamp,” said Republicans had better follow suit or be doomed in the election. Sorock said one of the major takeaways from the survey was that “the path to the majority for the Republicans is cleaning the swamp.”
She added in an interview, “The conservative base is Trump’s. And if you’re a Trump voter, you approve of the job he’s doing 86 percent. But, we’re losing moderates. Cleaning out the swamp is the perfect way to get them back — for Trump and for the GOP. Trump was elected because he fought the establishment.”
Some top Republicans understand that Trump remains their ticket to re-election and are urging the president to hit the campaign trail in the fall. Those officials said that Trump has committed to a campaign blitz.
Sorock, who is credited with predicting Trump’s election victory far before others, compared Trump to former President Ronald Reagan and his ability to give voice to those who feel “boxed out” of the debate in Washington. As a result, she added, Trump supporters not only view them as their leader but also are willing to go along with him on most issues even if they clash with past positions.
“Trump is actually the emblem for all their issues more than their issues are, if that makes sense, so because he is a leader, they will follow him as to what he defines as a win for their issue priorities,” Sorock said.
“He is fulfilling the role of servant-leader more than Reagan,” she added.
