In the latest sign that some Republicans are eager for fresh faces in the 2024 presidential primaries, Iowa voters have done an about-face, making Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis their No. 1 pick.
In the last year, during which DeSantis became a GOP star and former President Donald Trump announced his latest bid to take back the Oval Office, the governor’s support in Iowa has hit 32%, up from 12%.
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Meanwhile, Trump has gone from 56% to just 30% among Iowa Republicans asked to name their first choice for the caucuses, according to Rick Shaftan of Neighborhood Research and Media.
“With support barely half what it was a year ago in a time when DeSantis’s vote has nearly tripled, Trump becomes a severe underdog in the race,” said Shaftan’s analysis of his new survey.
The shift is especially surprising because Iowa has been a state loyal to Trump. In the 2020 race, for example, he won with 53% of the vote to President Joe Biden’s 45%.
2024 Iowa Republican Primary Poll:
Ron DeSantis — 32%
Donald Trump — 30%June
Donald Trump — 38%
Ron DeSantis — 17%Neighborhood Research and Media
11/14-18, 393 LV, MoE ±5%https://t.co/j8sPXVnr6c— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 21, 2022
This was just the latest Shaftan survey to show 2024 support melting away for Trump in key early voting 2024 states.
In his survey breakdown, a few notable problems for Trump stood out.
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First, support from women appears to be shifting toward DeSantis. “President Trump’s support level has dropped 8 points since late June and 26 points in a year, with his biggest drop with women, especially older women. Trump led 62-8 with women a year ago with his lead now down to a point (28-27),” he wrote.
And among conservatives and men, DeSantis has caught fire. “DeSantis scored best with men and very conservative voters. With men DeSantis went from a 51-16 deficit to 36-21 in June to a 39-32 lead today. Among very conservative voters (60 percent of respondents this month, 59 percent in June and November 2021), Trump’s lead is down to one point (36-35) from a 62-13 lead a year ago and 46-17 in June.”
