The likelihood of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ousting either of New York’s senators has dimmed, with a new poll showing that she would get steamrolled by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in Democratic primaries.
While she has stoked speculation of a challenge to Schumer in 2022, a new statewide Zogby poll provided exclusively to Secrets shows her losing 54% to 21%.
And in a head-to-head matchup with Gillibrand, who is up for reelection in 2024, Ocasio-Cortez loses to the 2020 presidential candidate 43%-26%, according to the survey.
But pollster Jonathan Zogby found cracks in the support for both of New York’s senators that could provide a base for Ocasio-Cortez to build on and shock the political system like she did in ousting Rep. Joseph Crowley in her 2018 challenge in the Bronx.
Zogby said that younger Democratic primary voters, New York City Democrats, and women could be targeted if the younger liberal activist ran.
Schumer, said the survey, “performed well with almost every sub-group surveyed.” He also is well ahead in all regions of the state.
But Ocasio-Cortez scored well with younger voters and single women.
In his analysis, Zogby said, “While it would be hard to defeat someone of Schumer’s stature, Ocasio-Cortez could make things interesting in a primary by energizing the younger base throughout the state, and depending on turnout, could make a hypothetical primary interesting at the very least. Also of note, are the two groups who were most unsure about how they would vote — women (Schumer leads 49% to 19%; 25% unsure) and suburban women (Schumer leads 48% to 17%; 25% unsure) — Ocasio-Cortez could take advantage of their uncertainty, and appeal to both groups, which could help better her chances in a potential primary showdown.”
Against Gillibrand, Ocasio-Cortez could also build on her New York City base, where she is tied at 35%, and build support from millennials and middle-income voters in a primary.
“The fact that Ocasio-Cortez is neck and neck with Gillibrand in NYC, and beating the former presidential candidate among younger voters, should be worrisome to the senator since many votes on a statewide level come from downstate, and Ocasio-Cortez has the name recognition to energize younger voters. Gillibrand should take note,” said Zogby.
The pollster’s bottom line:
“Although Senators Schumer and Gillibrand are winning against Ocasio-Cortez in hypothetical Democratic primaries, the freshman congresswoman is performing well among younger voters and urban voters. If she were to energize both groups and benefit from a low turnout, she could shock the world again like she did when she ousted longtime Congressman Joseph Crowley in 2018. Also, women were the most uncertain of the surveyed groups, which could give ‘AOC’ further leverage against heavyweights like Schumer and Gillibrand.”
