Former President Donald Trump dominates former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley with Republican South Carolina voters ahead of Saturday’s GOP primary, but the final margin should be much closer because independent voters prefer Haley, the state’s former governor.
In the latest Emerson College Polling/Hill survey, Trump leads with Republicans 71%-29%, a dominance unseen in most GOP-leaning states.
But his lead shrinks when independents are included, a key factor because the state has an open primary system, which lets registered voters choose if they want to vote in the Democratic or Republican primaries.
“South Carolina holds an open primary. There is a divide among Republican and independent affiliated voters,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said. “Voters who affiliate as Republicans break for Trump over Haley, 71%-29%, while voters who affiliate as independent break for Nikki Haley 54% to 46%.”
When all primary voters are considered, Trump’s lead shrinks to 58%-35%.
Among the highlights previewed by the pollster:
— Trump’s support is highest among voters under 40, with 69%, while Haley’s support is highest among voters in their 50s, at 48%.
— Haley leads Trump among voters whose highest degree is college, 52% to 48%, but trails among postgraduates 43% to 57%.
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— Haley also wins among the relatively few Republican primary voters who consider threats to democracy (63%), education (62%), and abortion access (53%) the top matters in the state, while Trump wins overwhelmingly with voters who say the economy (69%), immigration (74%), and crime (62%) are their top matters.
While she has yet to win a primary or caucus, Haley has been standing tall and is hoping for a better-than-expected finish in the state she governed before becoming the former president’s ambassador to the U.N.
