Hillary Clinton should find ways to bolster her former boss’ public approval ratings, because it will be hard, if not impossible, for her to finally win the Oval Office if President Obama doesn’t reach a consistent 50 percent by Election Day 2016, according to an analysis of 62 years of polling and election data.
Even more than the popularity of candidates running for office, the incumbent president’s approval rating “explains over half of the variance in the vote share of his party’s nominee,” said the analysis by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Going back to Dwight Eisenhower’s election in 1952 and evaluating the five other races following two-term presidencies, U.Va.’s Alan I. Abramowitz found that all three seeking to succeed their president when he had ratings below 50 percent were defeated.
Two of three running to succeed a president of their own party with ratings above 50 percent won. The odd man left out: Al Gore. Bill Clinton had a rating higher than 50 percent, and Gore won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College vote to George W. Bush.
“If the president’s approval rating remains below 50 percent in the fall of 2016, the Republican nominee should be a slight favorite; if the president’s approval rating is above 50 percent by the fall of 2016, the Democratic nominee should be a slight favorite,” wrote Abramowitz in the Center’s “Crystal Ball.”
Recently, Obama’s polls have increased to an average of 46 percent, and some put him at 50 percent. “The president’s rising approval rating in recent polls is good news for Hillary Clinton or whomever the Democratic Party eventually chooses as its nominee,” concluded Abramowitz.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected].
