Political polls about the presidential race might be skewing favorably to President Obama because recent changes in the electorate model, now evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, have not yet been adopted by many pollsters, according to Heritage Foundation analysis.
Michael Franc, Heritage vice president of government studies, said polls like the recent Washington Post survey pegging the race even at 47 percent each for Obama and Mitt Romney, was weighted too heavily in favor of Democrats.
In the poll, Democrats outnumbered Republicans 33% to 24%, despite Gallup’s data that shows the days of Democrats lording over the GOP are long over. Gallup has 30 percent of Americans Democrats, 30 percent Republicans and 39 percent independents, said Franc.
So calculate that change into the Post poll, he added, and the winner is Romney, “ahead by as much as 4 or 5 points.”
