Virginia appears to be out of reach for Senate Republicans with a new statewide poll showing that incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Warner has maintained his wide lead over challenger Ed Gillespie, the former national and state Republican Party chairman.
The latest poll from Christopher Newport University’s Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy gives Warner a 53 percent to 31 percent lead and also shows that the ally of President Obama is winning the support from some conservatives and independents.
While a huge boost the Warner campaign, the poll is depressing for the Gillespie camp. It showed that despite his non-stop statewide campaigning, Gillespie hasn’t secured his base yet.
“Mark Warner’s position surely makes him the envy of all of those incumbent Democrats who are in trouble across the country,” said Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center. “Warner not only has the solid backing of his own partisans, but also significant support among Republicans and ideological moderates and conservatives — what might best be called ‘Warner conservatives.’ ”
In their January poll, Warner led Gillespie 50 percent to 30 percent.
“Ed Gillespie’s challenge is formidable,” Kidd said. “He has to build his base while at the same time chipping at Warner’s solid lead.”
Gillespie spokesman Paul Logan told Secrets that the Republican’s campaign is about to kick into high gear, a timeline Virginia is used to. “Ed’s going to have the resources to get his message out. Voters will have a clear choice between Mark Warner’s record of voting 97 percent of the time with President Obama and Ed’s positive economic growth agenda,” he said.
GOP polls show that the state’s voters are still forming an opinion of Gillespie, suggesting that more advertising will help him close the gap. And many activists noted that September polls are notoriously inaccurate.
Gillespie has done a good job wooing Tea Party conservatives, but the poll showed that the campaign to paint Warner as an out-of-touch liberal in Obama’s pocket hasn’t worked. For example, Warner has the support of 19 percent of the “ideologically conservative” and 60 percent of the “ideologically moderate.”
Warner is also cleaning up in vote-rich Northern Virginia, home to Gillespie, receiving 61 percent to 29 percent for Gillespie. Third party candidate Robert Sarvis received 9 percent of the NoVa support.
Obama polls horribly in Virginia, but it doesn’t seem to be impacting state Democrats. Some 53 percent disapprove of the job Obama is doing, 43 percent approve.
But not only is Warner still standing high, but so is Gov. Terry McAuliffe who has a 47 percent to 27 percent approval rating.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected].
