Updated Thursday 11:30 a.m.
Redistricting, the president’s low approval ratings and a “firewall” in Great Lakes states will likely keep the Republicans in control of the House, according to a new analysis by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball team at the University of Virginia.
The latest analysis doesn’t use the negative GOP outlook on the Democratic chances, but instead chooses the “rosy” Democratic view, giving Team Blue wins in every district where their candidates are close.
House Editor Kyle Kondik’s expected outcome: Even in the best of situations where the Democrats dominate the election and President Obama wins in a runaway, the GOP will hold a three-seat advantage, saved by redistricting in Great Lakes states in favor of Republicans.
The review goes state by state and flicks close races to Democrats, but even then they fall short. And he’s also tough on Republicans, who hold 242 seats. “If they had 242 seats in the next House,” he wrote, “they would be ecstatic.”
“There’s a reason why many analysts and House-watchers, including some Democrats, believe that while Team Blue should pick up around five to 10 House seats, they have very little chance of winning the House,” said the Crystal Ball.
