Former President Donald Trump has moved into a three-point lead in the 2024 race against President Joe Biden, according to new polling.
Today’s Emerson College Polling shows that Trump has a 44%-41% lead over Biden, a flip from Biden’s 45%-41% lead in November.
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Biden is also barely treading water against Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, the only other potential Republican candidate with enough support to win the Republican presidential nomination. The survey found that Biden leads the newly reelected governor “by less than a percentage point, 40% to 39%.”
What’s changed? Democratic support for Biden being the party’s nominee has decreased.
“A majority of Democratic primary or caucus voters (58%) think President Biden should be the Democratic nominee in 2024, while 42% think it should be someone else. The share of Democratic voters who think Biden should be the nominee decreased six percentage points since the June Emerson poll, that found 64% support for Biden as the nominee, and 36% would rather it be someone else,” according to the analysis.
Politically, Biden has seen the document scandal chip away at his support, and Trump has shifted from a heavy focus on the 2020 loss to talking about answers to major 2024 issues including immigration.
While the 2024 news was dark for Biden, the poll analysis painted a bright picture for Biden because it found that he has reversed his sinking approval rating.
Still, it is underwater at 44% approve, 48% disapprove. But the poll analysis said that was good. “Biden’s approval has recovered five percentage points, from 39% to 44%, and his disapproval has decreased four percentage points, from 52% to 48%,” said the analysis.
And Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said, “President Biden rebounded with independent voters this month: his 29% approval among independents in November increased to 38% in January. His approval also increased nine points among college graduates, of whom 42% approved of Biden in November, now 51% in January. Women voters shifted from 40% approval of Biden to 46%, while male voters increased from 37% to 42% approval.”
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On the GOP side, Kimball said that 55% of Republicans expect Trump to be the nominee.
Trump has maintained his 55% support in the GOP primary, while DeSantis has increased his share by nine points from 20% to 29%. Every other potential candidate is in single digits, including former Vice President Mike Pence at 6% and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 3%.
