A top pollster armed with years of examples is warning Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton that her presidential bid faces a party practice of devouring race leaders.
“The fact is that more often than not, Democratic voters tend to chew up and spit out their early frontrunners,” said John Zogby of Zogby Analytics.
AP Photo
And Clinton is Example No. 1, her sure-win 2008 campaign vanquished by then Sen. Barack Obama.
“Democrats have a tradition and it doesn’t necessarily favor the early best-known, best-funded, all-but-assured nominee,” warned Zogby, who noted other front-runners who never made it as the party nominee: former President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968, Maine Sen. Edmund Muskie in 1972, Arizona Rep. Mo Udall in 1976 and Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt in 1988.
Zogby has years of experience polling and watching Clinton and finds that she is ahead of the GOP field in most polls. But, he added, while being known by virtually every American, she would only get 45 percent of the vote if the election were held today.
Lyndon B. Johnson. AP Photo
And the reason for that shortcoming is her “baggage,” he wrote in a blog post, adding that husband Bill Clinton isn’t the advantage he is thought to be for her.
Rep. Mo Udall. AP Photo
John Zogby: No doubt she will get a big boost from her announcement and her staff promises to raise a stunning amount of money to scare any credible challengers. But she also carries some baggage that could very well dog even the best organized and funded campaigns. Reeling from charges that in 2007-2008 she was wooden, remote, and too “inevitable” to the point of arrogant, the new Hillary promises to be more personal, a new and proud grandmother. But this in itself is reinvention and that is something to hard to accomplish when everyone knows you and is watching your every move. To be fair, Mrs. Clinton showed a warm, personal and genuine side to her when she successfully won her Senate races in New York we have to see if she is a little rusty from being away from the campaign trail so long. I am also not sure Americans love her husband as much when he campaigns for her as much as when he has campaigned for others.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected].
