They might not love him they way they did in 2008, but the youth vote is storming back to help President Obama and the Democrats win reelection, favoring the prez by 17 percentage points over likely GOP opponent Mitt Romney, according to a new Harvard University poll. The bottom line: Obama is favored 43 percent to 26 percent for Romney among younger voters.
What’s more, the poll of America’s 18-29 year-olds, a key support group for the president in 2008, found that they have flip-flopped in just four months and now think that Obama will win reelection. In the new poll, 43 percent believe Obama will win, 27 percent say he’ll lose. Four months ago, 36 percent said he’d lose, while just 30 percent said he’d win.
“Over the last several months, we have seen more of the Millennial vote begin to solidify around President Obama and Democrats in Congress,” said Harvard Institute of Politics Director Trey Grayson. “At the same time, there has been effectively no change in their support for Mitt Romney and Republicans in Congress.”
Added Poll Director John Della Volpe, “Although this generation is not as supportive of President Obama and Democrats as they may have been in the historic 2008 campaign, this in no way implies that the Republican Party has successfully captured the hearts, minds and votes of Millennials.” In fact, he suggested that “too many are sitting on the sidelines” waiting to be engaged by either party.
One stunner is the growth of conservatives among younger voters, especially those aged 18-21. Slightly over 40 percent of those describe themselves as conservatives.
Key findings of the survey of 3,096 18- to 29- year-old U.S. citizens with a margin of error of +/- 1.7 percentage points:
— The youth gap is widening in Obama’s favor. Also, Obama leads Romney among 18- to 24- year-olds by 12 points (41 percent-29 percent) and 25- to 29- year-olds by 23 points (46 percent-23 percent).
— Obama’s approval is beginning to stabilize, but white Millennials still have doubts. Over the past four months, Obama’s job approval rating among America’s 18- to 29- year-olds has risen 6 percentage points to 52 percent. But Harvard said he continues to struggle with white Millennials – maintaining only a 41 percent job approval rating. Hispanics, however, have a crush on him and are driving his approval ratings higher among all Millennials, said Volpe.
— The economy is the top issue, as it is with most voters. Some 58 percent of Millennials put “jobs and the economy” at the top of their issue list.
— In a shocker, most trust the United Nations more than Washington. Overall, 38 percent of America’s 18- to 29- year olds trust the United Nations to do the right thing all or most of the time – a greater proportion than those saying the same about the federal government (27 percent), Congress (23 percent) or Wall Street (13 percent).
