Political traders have seen the light, even before Tuesday’s Indiana primary, and are putting their money on Donald Trump to win the GOP nomination outright and not at a brokered convention.
In a stunning reversal of the prediction market just a few weeks ago, some 40,000 traders on PredictIt.org are overwhelmingly voting with their dollars against a convention floor fight and against Sen. Ted Cruz pulling off a Cinderella victory.
PredictIt.org told Secrets that shares of “yes” in favor of a brokered convention were trading at 79 cents.
That bet is now just 11 cents, while “no” shares are trading at a sky-high 92 cents.
Ditto for Trump on PredictIt.org. Traders have pushed shares of Trump to 90 cents while Cruz shares are trading at just 5 cents.
“Although speculation over a brokered GOP convention reached a fever pitch in recent weeks, it’s clear that PredictIt traders are bullish on not only a big Trump win in Indiana Tuesday night but capturing the nomination outright and avoiding a brokered convention,” said Brandi Travis, chief marketing officer at Aristotle Inc., which services PredictIt.org in conjunction with Victoria University of Wellington.
“The intense trading and speculation we’ve seen from the thousands of Americans who invest in our marketplace each week is an important reminder that Predictit offers critical real-time insight into future political events both at home and abroad,” she added.
While traders like Trump, they still think Hillary Rodham Clinton wins the election in November. She is currently trading at 62 cents to Trump’s 38 cents.
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]
