The White House expects a vote to impeach President Trump if Democrats win control of the House in the November midterm elections, and depending on the size of the liberal majority, they expect it to pass, according to Trump advisers.
“If we lose the House, it’s a given that they’ll try to get a vote to impeach,” said an outside Trump adviser.
A Trump insider added, “it is being discussed.”
Democrats have tried to quiet the impeachment talk out of fear it will prompt Trump supporters to jam the voting booths in November to protect the Republican House majority.
But even if there is an impeachment, on still-to-be-decided charges, the Trump White House feels assured that the Senate would not convict the president. Some 67 votes are needed.
“No one serious that I know is worried about the Senate convicting,” said a New York Trump adviser.
Ron Bonjean, who advised a Republican House speaker and Republican Senate majority leader, said, “There’s no question that Democrats upset with President Trump will begin aggressive oversight hearings as well as start the push for impeachment.”
But, he added, “Even if a vote cleared a Democrat majority-led House, it would be very difficult to gain Senate approval because it would then take 67 votes to achieve removing the president. That means Senate Democrats would have to be unanimous as well as bringing with them more than a handful of Republicans.”
A GOP insider, however, said seven Senate Republicans have taken anti-Trump positions and could vote for conviction.
But even moving in that direction, especially as the 2020 presidential election heats up and if Trump continues to score policy successes, could backfire on Democrats.
“If the Democrats actually did this, it would prove a political disaster for them,” said Trump pal and Newsmax chief Christopher Ruddy.
A top Senate Democratic adviser seemed to agree. “He’s not going to be impeached unless special prosecutor Robert Mueller’s team shows proven wrongdoing. There’s no appetite for it. Beyond that, Nancy Pelosi already said no to impeachment and support for her is tenuous. If she wants to remain leader, she’ll need to keep that commitment,” the adviser said.
While they dismiss a conviction, which would force Trump from office, Republicans aren’t shy about warning that Democrats may push to impeach the president. The GOP hopes that message will spur the White House to fight back harder and help keep GOP majorities in the House and Senate.
“It is a fear in GOP circles, but more than anything it should be a fear first and foremost in the White House. The prospect of Nancy Pelosi as speaker and Chuck Schumer as majority leader should be all the motivation the president needs to get much more engaged in the midterms than he’s been so far,” said a longtime adviser to several GOP leaders.
