The Republican Party’s effort to stretch out the 2012 primary season seems to be working. Even after Tuesday night’s contests in Arizona and Michigan, just 15 percent of the 2,245 delegates up for grabs will have been committed, according to new GOP calculations.
Before the election, just 295, or 13 percent, of the delegates have been chosen and that increases to just 354 after Arizona and Michigan, both states where delegate-leader Mitt Romney is expected to win.
But challenged to come up with a total of 1,144 delegates to secure the nomination, it’s clear the race is going to go far past Super Tuesday where 466 delegates are up for grabs. But Romney, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum are expected to divide victories in the 11 states holding elections. Even after next Tuesday’s biggest election night of the primary season, just 36 percent of the delegates will have been committed, said the GOP.
Still, few Republican Party executives believe that there will be a brokered convention this fall, instead expecting that either Romney will finally emerge as the front-runner, or the top two candidates will face-off in multiple convention votes until only one man is left standing.
Below is the latest RNC memo on the delegate counts:
· Arizona is a winner-take-all primary in which 29 delegates will be awarded based on the statewide vote per the state party’s filing.
· Michigan is a proportional primary in which 30 delegates will be awarded – 2 delegates per each of the 14 congressional districts allocated winner-take-all by the CD vote (total of 28) and the remaining 2 delegates will be at-large allocated on a “proportional” basis if a 15 percent threshold statewide is reached per the state party’s filing.
See full details for Arizona and Michigan below.
DELEGATE COUNT AS REPORTED BY STATE PARTIES
*These numbers do not reflect any potential delegate disputes and this information may change based on the results that come in after the initial vote that may affect the delegate count.
Total Bound Delegates To Date: 113
|
State |
Dele- |
Gingrich |
Paul |
Romney |
Santorum |
Un- |
|
Iowa* |
28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
|
New Hampshire |
12 |
0 |
3 |
7 |
0 |
2 |
|
South Carolina |
25 |
23 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
|
Florida |
50 |
0 |
0 |
50 |
0 |
0 |
|
Nevada |
28 |
6 |
5 |
14 |
3 |
0 |
|
Colorado* |
36 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
36 |
|
Minnesota* |
40 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
|
Missouri* |
52 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
52 |
|
Maine* |
24 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
|
Subtotal |
295 |
29 |
8 |
73 |
3 |
182 |
|
Arizona |
29 |
|||||
|
Michigan |
30 |
|||||
|
Total |
354 |
182 |
*Denotes non-binding caucus or primary has occurred.
ARIZONA
29 Total Delegates
Penalized 29 Delegates per Rule 16
Important Dates
Primary: 2/28/12
Congressional District Caucus: 5/12/12
State Convention: 5/12/12
Selection Method
Primary/District Caucus/State Convention
Delegates Bound for 1 ballot
· 29 Bound Delegates
Selection Details as Submitted by State Party
At Large Delegates – Delegate allocation: Winner-take-all based statewide primary. Delegate election at state convention.
Congressional District Delegates – Delegate allocation: Winner-take-all based on statewide primary. Delegate election: at district caucuses.
MICHIGAN
30 Total Delegates
Penalized 29 delegates per Rule No. 16
Important Dates
Primary: 2/28/12
CD Caucus: 5/18/12
State Convention: 5/19/12
Selection Method
Primary/CD Caucus/State Convention
Delegates Bound for 1 Ballot
· 30 Bound Delegates
Selection Details as Submitted by State Party
2 At-Large Delegates – Delegate allocation: Proportional if candidate reaches 15% threshold. Delegate election: At State Convention.
28 Congressional District Delegates – Delegate allocation: Winner-take-all per CD. Delegate election: At CD Caucuses.
