EXCLUSIVE — President Joe Biden’s base of minority voters, especially blacks, Hispanics and Asians, are abandoning him ahead of the November midterm elections, driven away by an unexpectedly weak economy and poor outlook.
In a series of new Zogby polls shared with Secrets on Wednesday, support from the trio of groups that make up the traditional Democratic base is far below what’s needed to win big in the fall elections or in 2024. In the case of blacks and Hispanics, Biden’s approval numbers are down double digits.
What’s more, pollster Jonathan Zogby said no more than 35% of each group would choose Biden in the 2024 Democratic primaries.
“It’s hard to see where this is a good scenario for Biden,” said Zogby. “His support is lagging among a big part of his base. Does this mean he will not win reelection or he will bow out? It’s hard to saym but these are not great numbers among one of the strongest groups that make up his base,” he added.
Among blacks, Biden has an approval rating of just 57.5% and a disapproval rating of 32.3%. Zogby said the president’s approval is down 17 points from his last survey.
“In May 2022, our poll had the president at 75% approval/22% disapproval among African American likely voters. Historically, Biden’s numbers have been even higher with African Americans,” said Zogby of the surprising crash of support for Biden among blacks.
He blamed the fall on the economy and a belief among 52% of African Americans that the country is on the wrong track.
With Hispanics, Biden’s support is down 13 points this year to just 49.4%.
“This is a huge decrease from his approval rating in January (62% approved/36% disapproved). It is also a trend observed in our May poll (50% approved/46% disapproved). Like African Americans, it does not help that a majority (55%) of Hispanics think the country is off on the wrong track and only a third think the U.S. is headed in the right direction, while 11% were not sure. Even more Hispanic voters (59%) thought the economic direction of the country was off on the wrong track, too, while only a third thought the U.S. economy was headed in the right direction,” said Zogby’s analysis.
His support among Asians is split between 46% approval to 46% disapproval in the survey. “In line with Hispanic and African Americans voters, Asians also felt the country was off on the wrong track (54%), and only a third (34%) thought it was headed in the right direction. Sentiment was even harsher when it came to the direction of the U.S. economy — 58% thought it was off on the wrong track, and 29% of surveyed Asian American voters thought the U.S. economy was headed in the right direction,” said Zogby.
Looking ahead to the 2024 primary, Biden’s support was low among the groups when given several choices, including his vice president, Kamala Harris, whose showing was dismal.
- African Americans: Biden 35.5%, former first lady Michelle Obama 21.8%, Harris 12.5%.
- Hispanics: Biden 35.3%, Obama 15%, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) 14.5%, Harris 11.7%.
- Asians: Biden 28.4%, Sanders 12.8%, Obama 12%, Harris 11.1%.
“While President Biden’s approval ratings with minority voters might seem all right at the moment, they do not show the enthusiasm and energy he will need to get minority voters out to vote in the midterms,” said Zogby’s analysis.
“Historically, a president, whose party is in power, gives up control of the House and/or Senate during their first midterm election. Biden is out there telling his supporters this midterm election is for the ‘soul’ of the nation, but will this be enough to energize his base and supporters to quell the potential damage they might receive in November? At the moment, his approval ratings and status in hypothetical primaries with minorities do not support this narrative. While voters might be in a fight for the soul of the nation, Biden is in the fight of his life for the support of his base,” he added.
