Washington Secrets

2000 Bush-Gore repeat predicted for 2012

By Paul Bedard

Published July 11, 2012 4:00am ET

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2000 Bush-Gore repeat predicted for 2012 — For Obama to win, second quarter GDP has to be better than 1 percent. Here are the predicted impacts of GDP growth on the fall outcome, according the a University of Virginia election model.

A scientific election model that has accurately predicted the victor in the last five presidential campaigns shows that 2012 could be a repeat of 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush took the electoral victory. And in that scenario, it’s President Obama who would likely be Gore.

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Paul Bedard